Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: policy_headline_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1 | Copper futures upside bias persists as fresh supply-control/resource-nationalism and disruption narratives outweigh bearish macro impulses in the very near term. | 61 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 56 |
| copper | B2 | Over the next 24 hours, copper is more likely to trade firm-to-higher than to unwind sharply, but remains sensitive to policy/macro headline reversals. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 56 |
| copper | B3 | Intraday tape risk is skewed toward volatility spikes rather than a smooth trend because several fresh signals are concentrated and partly low-authority/echo-risk. | 62 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260311T070000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures upside bias persists as fresh supply-control/resource-nationalism and disruption narratives outweigh bearish macro impulses in the very near term.", "probability_pct": 61, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Fresh headline cadence around producer policy/resource control and disruption risk (Chile/Peru/Congo-linked narratives)", "Industrial policy / electrification buildout demand narrative (energy transition, grid, renewables) providing supportive backdrop" ], "contradicted_by": [ "USD strength / macro risk-off could rapidly blunt metals bid (no strong fresh bearish cluster provided in this input)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "copper", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, copper is more likely to trade firm-to-higher than to unwind sharply, but remains sensitive to policy/macro headline reversals.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Persistent demand narrative from decarbonisation/industrial policy", "Ongoing supply-risk narrative from key producing regions and trade policy friction" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Headline-driven de-risking / policy surprise producing a fast reversal" ] }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "copper", "claim": "Intraday tape risk is skewed toward volatility spikes rather than a smooth trend because several fresh signals are concentrated and partly low-authority/echo-risk.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Fresh clustered updates within the last 24h with mixed authority tiers", "Policy/geopolitics sensitivity in supply-chain narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2", "B3" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Several supporting themes are policy/resource-control linked; prone to rapid repricing on new statements." }, { "flag": "echo_risk_low_authority_cluster", "severity": "medium", "details": "A portion of the freshest cluster is concentrated in lower-tier/echo-risk sources, increasing fragility despite bullish direction." }, { "flag": "macro_usd_sensitivity", "severity": "medium", "details": "USD-strength / risk-off impulse could counter metals bid quickly; not directly contradicted in provided signals but structurally relevant." }, { "flag": "background_stale_overhang", "severity": "low", "details": "Several supportive narratives are slow-burn and older than 72h; they support direction but are not sufficient alone for high conviction." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "watch_long_bias", "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Bullish direction persists if fresh supply-risk/policy-control signals continue to print without an opposing macro-risk cluster." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility monitoring if another concentrated, low-diversity headline burst appears (echo-risk) within a 1\u20132h window." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Treat as reversal-risk if a high-authority, very-fresh (\u22642h) opposing macro/policy signal appears and contradiction ratio rises materially." }, { "action": "stay_flat", "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Prefer flat bias only if bullish pressure fades (directional_score_signed falls back into neutral band) while fragility rises above ~70." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z", 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"directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 23, "acceleration_score": 19, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 23, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Single-market scope enforced: copper.", "No explicit prior market_state provided; state_change set using a neutral baseline assumption (treated as new_bullish).", "Contradictions array empty in provided input; reversal_risk raised to medium primarily from headline/authority-mix fragility rather than explicit opposing signals." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }