Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: policy_headline_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Copper futures upside bias persists as fresh supply-control/resource-nationalism and disruption narratives outweigh bearish macro impulses in the very near term. 61 up accelerating 6h false 56
copper B2 Over the next 24 hours, copper is more likely to trade firm-to-higher than to unwind sharply, but remains sensitive to policy/macro headline reversals. 58 up stable 24h false 56
copper B3 Intraday tape risk is skewed toward volatility spikes rather than a smooth trend because several fresh signals are concentrated and partly low-authority/echo-risk. 62 mixed accelerating 6h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260311T070000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures upside bias persists as fresh supply-control/resource-nationalism and disruption narratives outweigh bearish macro impulses in the very near term.", "probability_pct": 61, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Fresh headline cadence around producer policy/resource control and disruption risk (Chile/Peru/Congo-linked narratives)", "Industrial policy / electrification buildout demand narrative (energy transition, grid, renewables) providing supportive backdrop" ], "contradicted_by": [ "USD strength / macro risk-off could rapidly blunt metals bid (no strong fresh bearish cluster provided in this input)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "copper", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, copper is more likely to trade firm-to-higher than to unwind sharply, but remains sensitive to policy/macro headline reversals.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Persistent demand narrative from decarbonisation/industrial policy", "Ongoing supply-risk narrative from key producing regions and trade policy friction" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Headline-driven de-risking / policy surprise producing a fast reversal" ] }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "copper", "claim": "Intraday tape risk is skewed toward volatility spikes rather than a smooth trend because several fresh signals are concentrated and partly low-authority/echo-risk.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Fresh clustered updates within the last 24h with mixed authority tiers", "Policy/geopolitics sensitivity in supply-chain narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2", "B3" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Several supporting themes are policy/resource-control linked; prone to rapid repricing on new statements." }, { "flag": "echo_risk_low_authority_cluster", "severity": "medium", "details": "A portion of the freshest cluster is concentrated in lower-tier/echo-risk sources, increasing fragility despite bullish direction." }, { "flag": "macro_usd_sensitivity", "severity": "medium", "details": "USD-strength / risk-off impulse could counter metals bid quickly; not directly contradicted in provided signals but structurally relevant." }, { "flag": "background_stale_overhang", "severity": "low", "details": "Several supportive narratives are slow-burn and older than 72h; they support direction but are not sufficient alone for high conviction." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "watch_long_bias", "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Bullish direction persists if fresh supply-risk/policy-control signals continue to print without an opposing macro-risk cluster." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility monitoring if another concentrated, low-diversity headline burst appears (echo-risk) within a 1\u20132h window." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Treat as reversal-risk if a high-authority, very-fresh (\u22642h) opposing macro/policy signal appears and contradiction ratio rises materially." }, { "action": "stay_flat", "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Prefer flat bias only if bullish pressure fades (directional_score_signed falls back into neutral band) while fragility rises above ~70." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 15, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 23, "acceleration_score": 19, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 23, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Single-market scope enforced: copper.", "No explicit prior market_state provided; state_change set using a neutral baseline assumption (treated as new_bullish).", "Contradictions array empty in provided input; reversal_risk raised to medium primarily from headline/authority-mix fragility rather than explicit opposing signals." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }