Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: momentum_fading
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term supply-side stress signals (Brazil cost/environmental conditions; robusta climate/supply-chain disruption) bias coffee futures upward over the next 24h. 62 up stable 24h false 64
coffee B-coffee-002 Shipping/logistics risk (Middle East trade/logistics disruption themes) supports a residual risk premium in coffee over the next 6–24h. 55 up fading 6h false 64
coffee B-coffee-003 Demand-side narratives (coffee shop category growth and consumer preference trends) add mild upside support, less price-immediate than supply/logistics drivers. 54 up fading 24h false 64

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS6B_coffee_20260311T000000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term supply-side stress signals (Brazil cost/environmental conditions; robusta climate/supply-chain disruption) bias coffee futures upward over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "driver_type": "origin_supply",
 "driver_label": "Brazil: production costs and environmental conditions",
 "source_trend_ids": [
 "T-066"
 ]
 },
 {
 "driver_type": "weather",
 "driver_label": "Robusta: climate change and supply chain disruption",
 "source_trend_ids": [
 "T-040"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Shipping/logistics risk (Middle East trade/logistics disruption themes) supports a residual risk premium in coffee over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "driver_type": "shipping_freight",
 "driver_label": "Iran: trade and logistics challenges",
 "source_trend_ids": [
 "T-005"
 ]
 },
 {
 "driver_type": "shipping_freight",
 "driver_label": "Kuwait: trade disruption",
 "source_trend_ids": [
 "T-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side narratives (coffee shop category growth and consumer preference trends) add mild upside support, but are less price-immediate than supply/logistics drivers.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "driver_type": "crop_conditions",
 "driver_label": "Consumer preferences (specialty coffee / plant-based drinks)",
 "source_trend_ids": [
 "T-064"
 ]
 },
 {
 "driver_type": "crop_conditions",
 "driver_label": "Growth in functional beverages (caf\u00e9s/coffee shops)",
 "source_trend_ids": [
 "T-067"
 ]
 },
 {
 "driver_type": "crop_conditions",
 "driver_label": "Starbucks: market (proxy demand sentiment)",
 "source_trend_ids": [
 "T-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "momentum_fading",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional support is present but the latest-hours signal slope is negative (post-peak decay), increasing odds of reversion toward neutral if not refreshed."
 },
 {
 "flag": "indirect_driver_mix",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is thematic (demand narratives / broad logistics) rather than tight coffee-specific crop metrics."
 },
 {
 "flag": "source_authority_mix_skew_low",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Trend evidence bundles show high low-authority share; conviction capped accordingly."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<6h) confirmation of Brazil-origin supply stress (weather/crop condition headlines, export flow constraints) without offsetting bearish supply news."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "New escalation/de-escalation in key shipping lanes or freight disruption updates that change the logistics risk premium."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "A high-trust opposing signal (<=2h) indicating easing supply constraints or demand deterioration that materially raises contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -16,
 "acceleration_score": -28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 83,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 12,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; momentum/reversal derived from recency + signal concentration proxies.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish (assumes unknown_prior baseline).",
 "Timeseries bucket evidence-count uses available newest-timestamp proxies embedded in trend bundles; not a full per-record timestamp reconstruction."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}