Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: momentum_fading
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T00:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term supply-side stress signals (Brazil cost/environmental conditions; robusta climate/supply-chain disruption) bias coffee futures upward over the next 24h. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
64 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Shipping/logistics risk (Middle East trade/logistics disruption themes) supports a residual risk premium in coffee over the next 6–24h. |
55 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
64 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Demand-side narratives (coffee shop category growth and consumer preference trends) add mild upside support, less price-immediate than supply/logistics drivers. |
54 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
64 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS6B_coffee_20260311T000000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term supply-side stress signals (Brazil cost/environmental conditions; robusta climate/supply-chain disruption) bias coffee futures upward over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
{
"driver_type": "origin_supply",
"driver_label": "Brazil: production costs and environmental conditions",
"source_trend_ids": [
"T-066"
]
},
{
"driver_type": "weather",
"driver_label": "Robusta: climate change and supply chain disruption",
"source_trend_ids": [
"T-040"
]
}
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Shipping/logistics risk (Middle East trade/logistics disruption themes) supports a residual risk premium in coffee over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
{
"driver_type": "shipping_freight",
"driver_label": "Iran: trade and logistics challenges",
"source_trend_ids": [
"T-005"
]
},
{
"driver_type": "shipping_freight",
"driver_label": "Kuwait: trade disruption",
"source_trend_ids": [
"T-001"
]
}
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side narratives (coffee shop category growth and consumer preference trends) add mild upside support, but are less price-immediate than supply/logistics drivers.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
{
"driver_type": "crop_conditions",
"driver_label": "Consumer preferences (specialty coffee / plant-based drinks)",
"source_trend_ids": [
"T-064"
]
},
{
"driver_type": "crop_conditions",
"driver_label": "Growth in functional beverages (caf\u00e9s/coffee shops)",
"source_trend_ids": [
"T-067"
]
},
{
"driver_type": "crop_conditions",
"driver_label": "Starbucks: market (proxy demand sentiment)",
"source_trend_ids": [
"T-002"
]
}
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "momentum_fading",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional support is present but the latest-hours signal slope is negative (post-peak decay), increasing odds of reversion toward neutral if not refreshed."
},
{
"flag": "indirect_driver_mix",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is thematic (demand narratives / broad logistics) rather than tight coffee-specific crop metrics."
},
{
"flag": "source_authority_mix_skew_low",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Trend evidence bundles show high low-authority share; conviction capped accordingly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<6h) confirmation of Brazil-origin supply stress (weather/crop condition headlines, export flow constraints) without offsetting bearish supply news."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "New escalation/de-escalation in key shipping lanes or freight disruption updates that change the logistics risk premium."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "A high-trust opposing signal (<=2h) indicating easing supply constraints or demand deterioration that materially raises contradiction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; momentum/reversal derived from recency + signal concentration proxies.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish (assumes unknown_prior baseline).",
"Timeseries bucket evidence-count uses available newest-timestamp proxies embedded in trend bundles; not a full per-record timestamp reconstruction."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}