Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: weather_crop_blindspot (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T18:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001-6h |
Coffee futures have a mild upward bias over the next 6 hours, led by fresh demand-side/supportive trade narrative reinforcement rather than an acute supply shock. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
72 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002-24h |
Over the next 24 hours, coffee futures remain modestly supported, but the thesis is fragile due to limited coffee-specific supply signals and reliance on persistent narrative drivers. |
56 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_20260311T180000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001-6h",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures have a mild upward bias over the next 6 hours, led by fresh demand-side/supportive trade narrative reinforcement rather than an acute supply shock.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh reinforcement of coffee-related demand/preference narrative (consumer preference/health consciousness coffee theme)",
"Ongoing specialty coffee / trade narrative reinforcement tied to Brazil exporter context (CECAF\u00c9-themed coverage)",
"Momentum uptick in the last ~4\u20136 hours (signal score drifting above the bullish threshold)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No direct, coffee-specific weather/crop-condition shock signal admitted in this cycle (supply-side blind spot)",
"High sensitivity to any late-breaking origin supply or BRL/USD move not explicitly captured here"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002-24h",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, coffee futures remain modestly supported, but the thesis is fragile due to limited coffee-specific supply signals and reliance on persistent narrative drivers.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistent coffee demand/trade narrative with recent mentions",
"Evidence recency is strong (updates within ~2 hours of snapshot), supporting short-horizon continuation"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Thin cross-domain coverage for coffee (weather/crop conditions/origin supply signals not explicitly present)",
"If new supply-boost or demand-deterioration evidence arrives, reversal risk increases quickly"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001-6h",
"B-coffee-002-24h"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_coffee_specific",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Only a small subset of trends could be confidently mapped to coffee via explicit coffee-linked labels/entities; many macro/shipping narratives were not force-mapped."
},
{
"flag": "weather_crop_blindspot",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "high",
"details": "No explicitly admitted coffee-specific weather/crop-condition shock signal in this slice; increases fragility and reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "demand_side_bias",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"details": "Current bullish bias is supported primarily by demand/trade narrative reinforcement rather than direct origin supply constraint evidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed holds >= +20 for the next 3 consecutive hourly buckets while contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.25."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed falls below +10 OR any fresh (<=2h) opposing coffee-specific supply-easing signal appears."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fragility_score_0_100 remains >= 70 and velocity_score magnitude exceeds 8 for two consecutive buckets."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If the score mean-reverts into (-20, +20) and fresh_evidence_count drops to 0 for 6+ hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 2,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to 'coffee' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"Most non-coffee-labelled macro/shipping/geopolitical trends were not force-mapped to coffee per alias-based mapping constraint; coffee state is therefore derived from a small coffee-specific subset.",
"No prior state memory provided; state_change treated as 'new_bullish' relative to unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}