Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T18:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Over the next 24h, coffee futures face net upward pressure as supply-friction (shipping/logistics) and cost inflation signals dominate incremental flow. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 61 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Over the next 6h, bullish bias persists but is likely fragile (headline-driven), with a higher chance of choppy/sideways trade than a clean continuation surge. | 55 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 61 |
| coffee | B-coffee-003 | Reversal risk increases if the next news impulse shifts from supply-friction to demand/consumption weakness narratives; current dataset does not show a fresh opposing impulse strong enough to flip direction. | 42 | down | fading | 24h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260311-180000Z-coffee", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures face net upward pressure as supply-friction (shipping/logistics) and cost inflation signals dominate incremental flow.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight: elevated disruption risk / routing friction", "origin_supply: export flow sensitivity (Brazil-focused headlines)", "crop_conditions: risk/uncertainty spillover from agriculture risk signals", "macro_costs: higher/uncertain production cost backdrop" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Potential demand-side cooling (consumer spending sensitivity) without fresh confirming evidence in this batch", "FX sensitivity (BRL/USD) not directly observed in admitted signals" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Over the next 6h, bullish bias persists but is likely fragile (headline-driven), with a higher chance of choppy/sideways trade than a clean continuation surge.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "late-session clustering of supply/cost/logistics updates", "evidence mix contains broad (non-coffee-exclusive) commodities narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-003", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Reversal risk increases if the next news impulse shifts from supply-friction to demand/consumption weakness narratives; current dataset does not show a fresh opposing impulse strong enough to flip direction.", "probability_pct": 42, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "demand-side narratives (consumer preference/retail) can invert quickly", "low-authority share and cross-commodity spillover raise whipsaw risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-001" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-001", "B-coffee-002" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-coffee-001", "market": "coffee", "type": "low_authority_overhang", "severity": "medium", "details": "Admitted themes show a high share of lower-tier sources in the evidence bundle mix; conviction capped and fragility elevated." }, { "flag_id": "RF-coffee-002", "market": "coffee", "type": "cross_domain_spillover_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Several admitted drivers are macro/logistics narratives not exclusive to coffee; price impact may be indirect and noisy." }, { "flag_id": "RF-coffee-003", "market": "coffee", "type": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Bullish pressure is headline-clustered late in the window; absence of explicit opposing signals does not eliminate fast reversals if demand/FX narratives appear." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch if directional_score_signed stays >= +20 for the next 2\u20134 hourly buckets with fresh_evidence_count > 0." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.30 while directional_score_signed remains between +10 and +25." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if a fresh (<=2h) opposing signal arrives and directional_score_signed drops by >= 25 points within 2 buckets." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Prefer flat/watch-only stance if fresh_evidence_count returns to 0 for >= 6 consecutive buckets and conviction_score_0_100 falls below 40." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 11, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 11, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 11, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 11, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 11, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 36, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly to market_code=coffee from flight_plan.target_market_code.", "No contradictions array provided; contradiction_ratio is conservatively estimated from mixed driver domains and source-tier dispersion rather than explicit counter-signals.", "No trend_state_memory provided; prior state treated as neutral for state_change derivation (yielding new_bullish).", "VIP outliers and risk anomalies were reviewed; none introduced a fresh opposing <=2h high-authority signal sufficient to trigger the late-breaking invalidation sentinel." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }