Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: RF-coffee-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11 07:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-24h-up-001 Coffee futures upside skew over the next 24h as supply/freight risk headlines and origin cost pressure dominate near-term narrative flow. 64 up accelerating 24h false 57
coffee B-coffee-6h-vol-002 Coffee futures headline-driven volatility remains elevated over the next 6h (gap/whipsaw risk) given geopolitics + logistics narrative concentration. 71 mixed accelerating 6h false 57
coffee B-coffee-24h-demand-tailwind-003 Demand-side tone is modestly supportive over 24h (specialty/innovation engagement narratives), providing additional upside support if supply risk persists. 58 up stable 24h false 57
coffee B-coffee-24h-demand-soft-004 There is a meaningful risk that demand/consumption narratives soften enough to cap rallies within 24h. 38 down fading 24h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "snap-6B-coffee-20260311T070000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-up-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Coffee futures upside skew over the next 24h as supply/freight risk headlines and origin cost pressure dominate near-term narrative flow.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Shipping/freight disruption narrative (Iran/Saudi/Maersk/CMA CGM-linked disruption themes) raising delivery-risk premium", "Origin-side cost pressure signal (Brazil production-cost theme) supporting supply tightness", "Agricultural risk themes in producing regions adding precautionary supply premium" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-24h-demand-soft-004" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-6h-vol-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Coffee futures headline-driven volatility remains elevated over the next 6h (gap/whipsaw risk) given geopolitics + logistics narrative concentration.", "probability_pct": 71, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Geopolitical logistics disruption themes updating frequently in the last ~6h", "Mixed demand narratives (consumer preference tailwind vs broader consumption-dynamics uncertainty)" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-demand-tailwind-003", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Demand-side tone is modestly supportive over 24h (specialty/innovation engagement narratives), providing additional upside support if supply risk persists.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Consumer preference / specialty coffee narratives (e.g., specialty + product innovation themes)", "Large-chain engagement/innovation narratives (Starbucks-related themes) supporting consumption resilience" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-24h-demand-soft-004" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-demand-soft-004", "market": "coffee", "claim": "There is a meaningful risk that demand/consumption narratives soften enough to cap rallies within 24h.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Global coffee consumption-dynamics theme carrying negative tone" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-24h-demand-tailwind-003", "B-coffee-24h-up-001" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-24h-up-001", "B-coffee-6h-vol-002", "B-coffee-24h-demand-tailwind-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-001", "market": "coffee", "type": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "description": "Directional bias is supported by multiple geopolitics/logistics themes that can reverse quickly on de-escalation or routing normalisation." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-002", "market": "coffee", "type": "data_authority_mix_overhang", "severity": "medium", "description": "Evidence bundles show substantial low-authority share; conviction is capped despite fresh updates." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-003", "market": "coffee", "type": "driver_coverage_gap", "severity": "low", "description": "BRL/USD driver arena is requested but not strongly evidenced in admitted signals, increasing model fragility vs FX-driven reversals." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch if hourly directional_score_signed stays >= +20 with contradiction_ratio <= 0.35 over the next 6h.", "action_label": "watch_long_bias" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility monitoring if fresh_evidence_count spikes while contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35 (headline churn / whipsaw risk).", "action_label": "volatility_watch" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Shift to reversal watch if directional_score_signed falls below +20 for 2+ consecutive hourly buckets (loss of upside pressure).", "action_label": "reversal_watch" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Prefer flat posture if signal becomes mixed (|directional_score_signed| < 20) and remains so for 4+ hours.", "action_label": "stay_flat" } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -16, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": 14, "acceleration_score": 18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 82, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 80, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 14, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly as 'coffee' from flight_plan.", "No trend_state_memory provided; prior state assumed neutral for state_change derivation.", "Contradictions array empty; reversal risk set to medium due to mixed demand-vs-supply narrative potential despite low explicit contradiction records." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }