Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-001 (headline_volatility)
- generated_at: 2026-03-11T18:00:51Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-001 |
Over the next 6h, Brent-linked crude futures retain an upside risk-premium as Middle East geopolitical and maritime-route risk remains elevated. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-002 |
Over the next 24h, direction remains biased upward but is headline-fragile; de-escalation headlines could rapidly compress the risk premium. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-003 |
Operational/refinery-outage narratives add modest near-term support to crude via broader energy complex tightness perceptions, but the crude-specific effect is mixed. |
54 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260311T180051Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:51Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, Brent-linked crude futures retain an upside risk-premium as Middle East geopolitical and maritime-route risk remains elevated.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Iran-linked geopolitical conflict narrative persistence with fresh updates (T-001)",
"Maritime chokepoint risk (Strait of Hormuz / UKMTO-style incident flow) (T-016, T-017)",
"Supply disruption framing across Gulf-linked actors (T-059, T-073, T-019)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Policy/macro overlay potentially tempering demand and/or strengthening USD sensitivity (T-021)",
"Inventory/supply-dynamics framing that could be interpreted as less-tight fundamentals (T-007, T-018)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, direction remains biased upward but is headline-fragile; de-escalation headlines could rapidly compress the risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical conflict and security-incident cadence (T-001, T-015, T-059, T-073)",
"Route-security narratives increasing perceived disruption tail-risk (T-016, T-017)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro/policy and growth/demand framing (T-021)",
"Potential inventory narratives (T-007)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Operational/refinery-outage narratives add modest near-term support to crude via broader energy complex tightness perceptions, but the crude-specific effect is mixed.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"IEA / refinery outages theme with fresh updates (T-003)",
"Saudi Aramco refinery-outage seed anomaly (RA-001)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Refinery outages can reduce crude throughput demand (downside channel) (T-003)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude_oil-001",
"B-crude_oil-002",
"B-crude_oil-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "headline_volatility",
"severity": "high",
"description": "Direction relies meaningfully on geopolitical/security headlines; reversal can occur on de-escalation signals."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "mixed_macro_overlay",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Macro/policy signals present but not cleanly directional in this evidence slice; can dampen or amplify crude moves."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "authority_mix_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Evidence bundles include meaningful low-authority share in several trends; conviction capped accordingly."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-004",
"market": "crude_oil",
"type": "data_sparsity_in_vip_lane",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Several VIP outliers are single-source; treated as low-weight confirmation only."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical and maritime-risk narratives continue to receive fresh, multi-source confirmation within the next 6h without offsetting inventory-build signals."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional security-incident / chokepoint updates arrive (or credible de-escalation headlines appear), expect rapid repricing risk."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If high-authority de-escalation or supply-assurance messaging appears within a 0\u20132h window and displaces current conflict cadence."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If signals become sharply contradictory (contradiction ratio spikes materially) and recency leadership rotates repeatedly within the next 6\u201312h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: crude_oil.",
"No explicit v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields provided; used heuristic mapping from trend labels/tags + recency proxies.",
"Directional interpretation assumes geopolitics/supply-disruption/chokepoint risk is generally upside-supportive for crude futures; macro/inventory narratives treated as partial offsets."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}