Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-001 (headline_volatility)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-11T18:00:51Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-001 Over the next 6h, Brent-linked crude futures retain an upside risk-premium as Middle East geopolitical and maritime-route risk remains elevated. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
crude_oil B-crude_oil-002 Over the next 24h, direction remains biased upward but is headline-fragile; de-escalation headlines could rapidly compress the risk premium. 58 up stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B-crude_oil-003 Operational/refinery-outage narratives add modest near-term support to crude via broader energy complex tightness perceptions, but the crude-specific effect is mixed. 54 mixed fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260311T180051Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:51Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, Brent-linked crude futures retain an upside risk-premium as Middle East geopolitical and maritime-route risk remains elevated.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Iran-linked geopolitical conflict narrative persistence with fresh updates (T-001)",
 "Maritime chokepoint risk (Strait of Hormuz / UKMTO-style incident flow) (T-016, T-017)",
 "Supply disruption framing across Gulf-linked actors (T-059, T-073, T-019)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Policy/macro overlay potentially tempering demand and/or strengthening USD sensitivity (T-021)",
 "Inventory/supply-dynamics framing that could be interpreted as less-tight fundamentals (T-007, T-018)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, direction remains biased upward but is headline-fragile; de-escalation headlines could rapidly compress the risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical conflict and security-incident cadence (T-001, T-015, T-059, T-073)",
 "Route-security narratives increasing perceived disruption tail-risk (T-016, T-017)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Macro/policy and growth/demand framing (T-021)",
 "Potential inventory narratives (T-007)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Operational/refinery-outage narratives add modest near-term support to crude via broader energy complex tightness perceptions, but the crude-specific effect is mixed.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "IEA / refinery outages theme with fresh updates (T-003)",
 "Saudi Aramco refinery-outage seed anomaly (RA-001)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Refinery outages can reduce crude throughput demand (downside channel) (T-003)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude_oil-001",
 "B-crude_oil-002",
 "B-crude_oil-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "headline_volatility",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "Direction relies meaningfully on geopolitical/security headlines; reversal can occur on de-escalation signals."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "mixed_macro_overlay",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Macro/policy signals present but not cleanly directional in this evidence slice; can dampen or amplify crude moves."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "authority_mix_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Evidence bundles include meaningful low-authority share in several trends; conviction capped accordingly."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-004",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "data_sparsity_in_vip_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Several VIP outliers are single-source; treated as low-weight confirmation only."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical and maritime-risk narratives continue to receive fresh, multi-source confirmation within the next 6h without offsetting inventory-build signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional security-incident / chokepoint updates arrive (or credible de-escalation headlines appear), expect rapid repricing risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If high-authority de-escalation or supply-assurance messaging appears within a 0\u20132h window and displaces current conflict cadence."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If signals become sharply contradictory (contradiction ratio spikes materially) and recency leadership rotates repeatedly within the next 6\u201312h."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-10T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-11T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-11T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: crude_oil.",
 "No explicit v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields provided; used heuristic mapping from trend labels/tags + recency proxies.",
 "Directional interpretation assumes geopolitics/supply-disruption/chokepoint risk is generally upside-supportive for crude futures; macro/inventory narratives treated as partial offsets."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}