Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_share_high
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bearish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-silver-1 | Silver futures face near-term downside bias as the dominant news corpus associates silver price action with declines under inflation/real-yield and geopolitical-risk framing. | 62 | down | fading | 24h | false | 56 |
| silver | B-silver-2 | ETF / institutional silver-linked flow narratives provide partial cushioning potential, limiting follow-through on bearish headlines. | 45 | up | stable | 24h | false | 56 |
| silver | B-silver-3 | Intraday trading conditions are likely to remain choppy/mixed even if the net bias is bearish, reflecting mixed-open framing in the corpus. | 58 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260426T150000Z-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T15:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-silver-1", "market": "silver", "claim": "Silver futures face near-term downside bias as the dominant news corpus associates silver price action with declines under inflation/real-yield and geopolitical-risk framing.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "real_rates", "monetary_policy", "usd_strength", "geopolitical_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-silver-2" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 65, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-silver-2", "market": "silver", "claim": "ETF / institutional silver-linked flow narratives provide partial cushioning potential, limiting follow-through on bearish headlines.", "probability_pct": 45, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "investment_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-silver-1" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-silver-3", "market": "silver", "claim": "Intraday trading conditions are likely to remain choppy/mixed even if the net bias is bearish, reflecting mixed-open framing in the corpus.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "market_volatility", "investment_flows", "macro_uncertainty" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bearish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bearish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 66, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-silver-1", "B-silver-2", "B-silver-3" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 1, "B": 1, "C": 7, "D": 146, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 6, "fresh_6_24h_est": 12, "stale_gt_24h_est": 139, "note": "Mix estimated from per-trend recency proxies and available source_ref_sample timestamps (full per-record timestamps not present in this 6B payload)." } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "silver", "flag": "low_authority_share_high", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Admitted silver-mapped trends show broad coverage but are dominated by Tier-D sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant." }, { "market": "silver", "flag": "spike_and_fade_momentum", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Key silver-down narratives present as spike-and-fade / slow-velocity, consistent with weakening momentum rather than strengthening follow-through." }, { "market": "silver", "flag": "counterevidence_present", "severity": "low", "detail": "ETF/institutional-flow and single-source bullish forecast signals provide partial counterweight, increasing reversal risk to medium." }, { "market": "silver", "flag": "timeseries_sparsity", "severity": "low", "detail": "Hourly timeseries bucketisation uses limited timestamp samples and trend-level recency proxies; treat bucket-level counts as conservative." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_short_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh bearish silver-specific prints persist (>=2 independent sources within 6h) while bullish flow signals do not broaden beyond single-source/low-tier." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If silver-linked flow coverage broadens and/or a Tier-A silver-specific reversal headline appears within a 2h window." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If mixed-open / choppy framing persists alongside competing flow narratives (contradiction ratio rising above ~0.20 in the last 6h buckets)." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed remains between -19 and +19 for >=6 consecutive hourly buckets (rangebound dominance)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [ "silver" ], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -12, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": -12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -14, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": -14, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -16, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": -16, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -18, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": -18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, 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"2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -27, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": -27, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -25, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": -25, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -22, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": -22, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -20, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": -20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -18, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": -18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -21, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": -21, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -24, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": -24, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -28, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": -28, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -30, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": -30, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -29, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": -29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -28, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": -28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -27, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": -27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -26, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": -26, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -28, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": -28, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -31, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": -31, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -33, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": -33, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -32, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": -32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -30, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": -30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bearish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 8, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 39, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "weakening_bearish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 4, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Scope locked to single market: silver (explicit).", "Admitted silver-mapped items primarily reflected price-decline framing; bullish counter-signal was present but mostly low-tier/single-source.", "No explicit contradictions list was provided in 5B; cross-signal counterevidence inferred from directionally-opposed admitted items.", "State_change set to new_bearish due to missing prior-state memory (treated as neutral baseline)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }