Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T06:35:16Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SI-001 | Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to drift lower or remain capped if 'rates higher for longer' / firmer real-rate narratives dominate. | 55 | down | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
| silver | B-SI-002 | Over the next 6h, silver futures are likely to trade choppy/mixed because USD-weakness impulses conflict with real-yield headwinds. | 60 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 62 |
| silver | B-SI-003 | Over the next 24h, silver has a meaningful chance of stabilising/firming on supportive investment-flow and 'renewed importance' narratives, but the impulse is not dominant versus fresh macro headwinds. | 48 | up | fading | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_2026-04-26T063516Z_silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T06:35:16Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to drift lower or remain capped if 'rates higher for longer' / firmer real-rate narratives dominate.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-002 (USD-weakness / political-Fed narratives can support precious metals)",
"B-SI-003 (silver-specific investment/importance narratives)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, silver futures are likely to trade choppy/mixed because USD-weakness impulses conflict with real-yield headwinds.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"monetary_policy",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If a single macro driver (either real yields up or USD down) becomes dominant, mixed conditions may resolve quickly."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, silver has a meaningful chance of stabilising/firming on supportive investment-flow and 'renewed importance' narratives, but the impulse is not dominant versus fresh macro headwinds.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-001 (real-rate and delayed-cuts narratives)",
"Any fresh evidence of sustained USD strength"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 57,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002",
"B-SI-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 4,
"B": 11,
"C": 9,
"D": 299,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_updated_0_6h": 5,
"signals_updated_6_24h": 2,
"signals_updated_24_72h": 1,
"signals_updated_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "contradiction_elevated",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "USD-weakness support signals coexist with 'higher-for-longer' / real-yield headwinds."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "cross_asset_proxy_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is macro/gold-proxy; silver-specific directional clarity is weaker."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Short-horizon bias can flip quickly if either USD or real-yield impulse dominates the next data/news window."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Use stay_flat when directional_state=neutral_mixed OR conviction_score_0_100 < 60."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Use volatility_watch when fragility_score_0_100 >= 60 OR contradiction stays elevated for multiple buckets."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Use reversal_watch if directional_score_signed crosses from near-0 to <= -30 or >= +30 within <= 6h with rising contradiction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 11,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 75,
"net_sentiment_score": -25,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 8,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -25,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['silver'].",
"Directional view kept neutral_mixed because silver-specific signals conflict and macro proxies dominate near-term impulse.",
"Prior state unavailable in provided inputs; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged'."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}