Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-26T06:35:16Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to drift lower or remain capped if 'rates higher for longer' / firmer real-rate narratives dominate. 55 down accelerating 24h false 62
silver B-SI-002 Over the next 6h, silver futures are likely to trade choppy/mixed because USD-weakness impulses conflict with real-yield headwinds. 60 mixed stable 6h false 62
silver B-SI-003 Over the next 24h, silver has a meaningful chance of stabilising/firming on supportive investment-flow and 'renewed importance' narratives, but the impulse is not dominant versus fresh macro headwinds. 48 up fading 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_2026-04-26T063516Z_silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T06:35:16Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to drift lower or remain capped if 'rates higher for longer' / firmer real-rate narratives dominate.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-002 (USD-weakness / political-Fed narratives can support precious metals)",
 "B-SI-003 (silver-specific investment/importance narratives)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, silver futures are likely to trade choppy/mixed because USD-weakness impulses conflict with real-yield headwinds.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "monetary_policy",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If a single macro driver (either real yields up or USD down) becomes dominant, mixed conditions may resolve quickly."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver has a meaningful chance of stabilising/firming on supportive investment-flow and 'renewed importance' narratives, but the impulse is not dominant versus fresh macro headwinds.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "investment_flows",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-001 (real-rate and delayed-cuts narratives)",
 "Any fresh evidence of sustained USD strength"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 57,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002",
 "B-SI-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 4,
 "B": 11,
 "C": 9,
 "D": 299,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_updated_0_6h": 5,
 "signals_updated_6_24h": 2,
 "signals_updated_24_72h": 1,
 "signals_updated_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "contradiction_elevated",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "USD-weakness support signals coexist with 'higher-for-longer' / real-yield headwinds."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "cross_asset_proxy_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is macro/gold-proxy; silver-specific directional clarity is weaker."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Short-horizon bias can flip quickly if either USD or real-yield impulse dominates the next data/news window."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Use stay_flat when directional_state=neutral_mixed OR conviction_score_0_100 < 60."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Use volatility_watch when fragility_score_0_100 >= 60 OR contradiction stays elevated for multiple buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Use reversal_watch if directional_score_signed crosses from near-0 to <= -30 or >= +30 within <= 6h with rising contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 11,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 75,
 "net_sentiment_score": -25,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 8,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -25,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['silver'].",
 "Directional view kept neutral_mixed because silver-specific signals conflict and macro proxies dominate near-term impulse.",
 "Prior state unavailable in provided inputs; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged'."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}