Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LI-DATA-SPARSITY (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-26T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Near-term lithium price support from perceived tightness/premiums and supply-side constraints (production outlook cuts) outweighs immediate bearish catalysts. 58 up accelerating 24h false 64
lithium B-LI-002 Refining capacity investment decisions are medium-term supply-normalisation signals that can cap upside once realised, keeping near-term direction mixed. 54 mixed stable 24h false 64

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260426T150000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T15:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium price support from perceived tightness/premiums and supply-side constraints (production outlook cuts) outweighs immediate bearish catalysts in the admitted set.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Lithium hydroxide premium narrative driving investment attention", "Mine/production outlook cut (Greenbushes-linked) implying tighter near-term supply", "Refining/supply-chain investment headlines reinforcing scarcity/premium framing" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Refining capacity investment decisions (e.g., new/refurb refinery capacity) are medium-term supply-normalisation signals that can cap upside once realised, keeping near-term direction mixed rather than cleanly bullish.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Refining capacity expansion / refinery investment decision headlines", "Supply chain investment signalling future throughput increases" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 8, "B": 2, "C": 2, "D": 90, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 9, "fresh_6_24h": 55, "stale_24_72h": 18, "stale_gt_72h": 0 }, "directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 15, "regime_state": "rangebound", "reversal_triggered": false, "reversal_evidence_summary": "No admitted fresh, independent opposing lithium-specific thesis cluster; reversal risk driven mainly by moderate fragility and the investment-driven (two-sided) nature of capacity headlines." } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-DATA-SPARSITY", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "description": "Lithium-specific direction is supported by a small number of distinct thesis clusters (investment/premium narrative + supply cut), increasing model fragility." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-INTERPRETATION-RISK", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "description": "Several admitted catalysts are investment/capex headlines that can be price-bullish (demand signal) or price-bearish (future supply increase) depending on horizon." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-LOW-AUTHORITY-OVERHANG", "market": "lithium", "severity": "low", "description": "Although Tier-A anchors exist, the broader evidence mix is dominated by lower-tier sources; maintain caution on conviction." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and no fresh counterevidence cluster emerges." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade bias if lithium-specific supply-tightness evidence broadens (2+ additional independent records within 6h) and directional_score_signed sustains >= +20." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if a fresh lithium-demand slowdown catalyst appears (<=6h) with multiple independent sources and pushes contradiction materially higher." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Expect choppy reaction windows around high-novelty, investment-decision headlines and production guidance revisions." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 2, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 2, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 3, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 3, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 11, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 15, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 15, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 2, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly as lithium; analysis constrained to single_market.", "Admitted lithium-mapped items were limited to lithium-specific investment/premium/supply headlines; broader EV-only trends were not force-mapped to lithium.", "State_change set to unchanged due to unknown prior state in provided inputs." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }