Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T15:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-gold-6h-001 | Next 6h: gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed; safe-haven support exists but the gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus is sparse and mostly stale, limiting directional edge. | 52 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 74 |
| gold | B-gold-24h-001 | Next 24h: gold futures bias remains mixed/rangebound unless fresh corroborating macro (rates/USD) or gold-flow signals emerge; current corpus is dominated by >72h-old narratives. | 53 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_gold_2026-04-26T15:10:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T15:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-6h-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Next 6h: gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed; safe-haven support exists but the gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus is sparse and mostly stale, limiting directional edge.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk (mostly stale corpus items)",
"real_rates / USD-strength linkage implied but not freshly evidenced in the admitted set",
"single fresh macro-risk seed with low evidentiary materialisation"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"lack_of_fresh_gold_specific_confirmation",
"data_sparsity_in_last_24h"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-24h-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Next 24h: gold futures bias remains mixed/rangebound unless fresh corroborating macro (rates/USD) or gold-flow signals emerge; current corpus is dominated by >72h-old narratives.",
"probability_pct": 53,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk overhang (stale)",
"policy/real-rates narrative overhang (stale)",
"fragility elevated due to thin fresh evidence"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"stale_context_overhang",
"thin_fresh_evidence"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 40,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-gold-6h-001",
"B-gold-24h-001"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 20,
"B": 1,
"C": 0,
"D": 2,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_24h": 1,
"recent_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 4
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Most admitted thematic drivers are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h), triggering strong downweighting and stale suppression."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Very limited gold-specific evidence in the last 24h; current read is fragile and prone to whipsaw on new information."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A small amount of fresh, low-materialised risk input can shift the state quickly due to low freshness confidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral watch mode while freshness_confidence is low and the signal set is dominated by stale drivers."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if additional fresh geopolitical/rates/USD signals arrive within the next 6\u201324h."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade to long-bias watch only if multiple independent fresh (<=24h) gold-flow or real-rates/USD signals align with safe-haven demand."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain reversal watch because high fragility implies rapid state changes on incremental evidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T14:10:00Z",
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}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 10,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 3,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Gold scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='gold'.",
"Recency weighting strongly downweighted most corpus items (published 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09).",
"Neutral/mixed enforced due to low freshness confidence and limited gold-specific corroboration."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}