Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-26T15:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-6h-001 Next 6h: gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed; safe-haven support exists but the gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus is sparse and mostly stale, limiting directional edge. 52 mixed fading 6h false 74
gold B-gold-24h-001 Next 24h: gold futures bias remains mixed/rangebound unless fresh corroborating macro (rates/USD) or gold-flow signals emerge; current corpus is dominated by >72h-old narratives. 53 mixed fading 24h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_gold_2026-04-26T15:10:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T15:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-6h-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Next 6h: gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed; safe-haven support exists but the gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus is sparse and mostly stale, limiting directional edge.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk (mostly stale corpus items)",
 "real_rates / USD-strength linkage implied but not freshly evidenced in the admitted set",
 "single fresh macro-risk seed with low evidentiary materialisation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "lack_of_fresh_gold_specific_confirmation",
 "data_sparsity_in_last_24h"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-24h-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Next 24h: gold futures bias remains mixed/rangebound unless fresh corroborating macro (rates/USD) or gold-flow signals emerge; current corpus is dominated by >72h-old narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 53,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk overhang (stale)",
 "policy/real-rates narrative overhang (stale)",
 "fragility elevated due to thin fresh evidence"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "stale_context_overhang",
 "thin_fresh_evidence"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 40,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-6h-001",
 "B-gold-24h-001"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 20,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 2,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h": 1,
 "recent_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Most admitted thematic drivers are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h), triggering strong downweighting and stale suppression."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Very limited gold-specific evidence in the last 24h; current read is fragile and prone to whipsaw on new information."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A small amount of fresh, low-materialised risk input can shift the state quickly due to low freshness confidence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral watch mode while freshness_confidence is low and the signal set is dominated by stale drivers."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if additional fresh geopolitical/rates/USD signals arrive within the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to long-bias watch only if multiple independent fresh (<=24h) gold-flow or real-rates/USD signals align with safe-haven demand."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain reversal watch because high fragility implies rapid state changes on incremental evidence."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 {
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 {
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 10,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 3,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Gold scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='gold'.",
 "Recency weighting strongly downweighted most corpus items (published 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09).",
 "Neutral/mixed enforced due to low freshness confidence and limited gold-specific corroboration."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}