Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: reversal_watch_mixed_demand_signals
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T14:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-01 | Near-term copper futures retain an upward bias as supply-side constraint narratives (mine disruption / processing bottlenecks such as acid availability) remain prominent and broadly repeated. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 46 |
| copper | B-copper-02 | Policy/infrastructure and energy-transition framing continues to contribute supportive demand expectations for copper, reinforcing bullish sentiment even if the impact is medium-term. | 58 | up | fading | 24h | false | 46 |
| copper | B-copper-03 | Short-horizon tape risk remains two-sided: pockets of demand/flow caution signals (e.g., export/flow slowdown narratives) can trigger pullbacks despite the broader bullish supply framing. | 44 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis_copper_2026-04-26T14:10:00Z_v1", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T14:10:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-01", "market": "copper", "claim": "Near-term copper futures retain an upward bias as supply-side constraint narratives (mine disruption / processing bottlenecks such as acid availability) remain prominent and broadly repeated.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply_disruption", "inventory_exchange_stocks", "supply_chain_disruption" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-03" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-02", "market": "copper", "claim": "Policy/infrastructure and energy-transition framing continues to contribute supportive demand expectations for copper, reinforcing bullish sentiment even if the impact is medium-term.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "energy_transition_demand", "trade_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-03" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 67, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-03", "market": "copper", "claim": "Short-horizon tape risk remains two-sided: pockets of demand/flow caution signals (e.g., export/flow slowdown narratives) can trigger pullbacks despite the broader bullish supply framing.", "probability_pct": 44, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "china_policy", "trade_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-01", "B-copper-02" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-01", "B-copper-02", "B-copper-03" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 15, "B": 4, "C": 6, "D": 420, "U": 0, "basis": "approx_sum_from_admitted_trend_evidence_bundles_non_deduped" }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 6, "fresh_6_24h_est": 14, "fresh_24_72h_est": 8, "stale_gt_72h_est": 2, "basis": "trend_bundle_newest_timestamp_distribution_proxy" } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "copper", "flag": "reversal_watch_mixed_demand_signals", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Corpus includes explicit 'mixed signals' framing and demand/flow caution items alongside supply-constraint narratives." }, { "market": "copper", "flag": "low_authority_mix", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of amplification is from lower-tier sources; authority confirmation is present but not dominant." }, { "market": "copper", "flag": "policy_headline_sensitivity", "severity": "medium", "detail": "China/US/EU policy and trade-policy themes are prominent and can produce rapid sentiment flips." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "high", "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-constraint confirmations persist without a rise in fresh opposing demand evidence." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If multiple independent demand/flow slowdown signals appear within a <=6h window and begin to dominate recent buckets." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction indicators rise (more mixed headlines) while freshness remains high." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "action_label": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If evidence freshness drops materially (no meaningful updates for >72h) and direction becomes primarily narrative persistence." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, 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"dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 25, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 10, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } } }