Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: mixed_thesis_components (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-COPPER-001 |
Copper futures sentiment skews upward on near-term horizons as supply-constraint narratives and electrification/grid/infrastructure demand narratives remain dominant in the freshest window. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
49 |
| copper |
B-COPPER-002 |
Over the next 24h, copper futures are at risk of a choppy / rangebound tape because supportive supply-risk narratives coexist with demand-shift uncertainty and intermittent supply-expansion headlines. |
56 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
49 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_copper_20260426T060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COPPER-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures sentiment skews upward on near-term horizons as supply-constraint narratives and electrification/grid/infrastructure demand narratives remain dominant in the freshest window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Supply-addition headlines (mine expansion/capacity growth) adding counterweight",
"Demand-side softness signals (e.g., export/flow decline narratives) in background set"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COPPER-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures are at risk of a choppy / rangebound tape because supportive supply-risk narratives coexist with demand-shift uncertainty and intermittent supply-expansion headlines.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"trade_policy",
"industrial_demand",
"mine_supply_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If fresh supply-disruption confirmation continues to cluster, upside skew may reassert quickly"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COPPER-001",
"B-COPPER-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 21,
"B": 7,
"C": 5,
"D": 371,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_evidence_refs": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_evidence_refs": 9,
"stale_over_24h_evidence_refs": 3,
"notes": [
"Freshness mix is approximated from per-trend evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp samples (trend-level proxy), not full per-record timestamps."
]
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mixed_thesis_components",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Supportive supply-constraint / electrification-demand narratives coexist with supply-addition and demand-shift uncertainty headlines; increases whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of the corpus is lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "counterevidence_present",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Non-trivial counterweight signals exist (e.g., supply expansion / demand softness narratives), lifting reversal risk to medium."
},
{
"flag": "timeseries_proxy_mode",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Signal timeseries buckets are derived from trend-level recency proxies rather than full per-record timestamp allocation (per-record physics was not provided to 6B)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) confirmation of supply constraints or demand-upside narratives continues without a comparable surge in opposing demand-weakness signals."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence clusters (multiple independent records within ~2h) indicating demand deterioration or rapid supply normalization, reassess for a bullish-to-neutral transition."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Headline mix remains elevated (supply risk + policy + demand uncertainty) while contradiction indicators rise."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses toward neutral (|score| < 20) with rising contradiction and sparse fresh evidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper.",
"Admitted set is constrained to copper-relevant drivers (supply constraints/disruptions, electrification/grid/infrastructure demand, policy/trade/inventory context).",
"Authority tier counts are aggregated at the trend level and are not de-duplicated across overlapping evidence bundles; use as a relative indicator only.",
"No late-breaking invalidation sentinel fired: no clearly clustered, <=2h, opposing hard invalidator was present in the admitted set."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}