Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_thesis_components (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-26T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-COPPER-001 Copper futures sentiment skews upward on near-term horizons as supply-constraint narratives and electrification/grid/infrastructure demand narratives remain dominant in the freshest window. 62 up accelerating 6h false 49
copper B-COPPER-002 Over the next 24h, copper futures are at risk of a choppy / rangebound tape because supportive supply-risk narratives coexist with demand-shift uncertainty and intermittent supply-expansion headlines. 56 mixed stable 24h false 49

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_copper_20260426T060000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COPPER-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures sentiment skews upward on near-term horizons as supply-constraint narratives and electrification/grid/infrastructure demand narratives remain dominant in the freshest window.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks",
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Supply-addition headlines (mine expansion/capacity growth) adding counterweight",
 "Demand-side softness signals (e.g., export/flow decline narratives) in background set"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COPPER-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures are at risk of a choppy / rangebound tape because supportive supply-risk narratives coexist with demand-shift uncertainty and intermittent supply-expansion headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "china_policy",
 "trade_policy",
 "industrial_demand",
 "mine_supply_disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If fresh supply-disruption confirmation continues to cluster, upside skew may reassert quickly"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-COPPER-001",
 "B-COPPER-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 21,
 "B": 7,
 "C": 5,
 "D": 371,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_evidence_refs": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_evidence_refs": 9,
 "stale_over_24h_evidence_refs": 3,
 "notes": [
 "Freshness mix is approximated from per-trend evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp samples (trend-level proxy), not full per-record timestamps."
 ]
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "mixed_thesis_components",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Supportive supply-constraint / electrification-demand narratives coexist with supply-addition and demand-shift uncertainty headlines; increases whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of the corpus is lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "counterevidence_present",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Non-trivial counterweight signals exist (e.g., supply expansion / demand softness narratives), lifting reversal risk to medium."
 },
 {
 "flag": "timeseries_proxy_mode",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Signal timeseries buckets are derived from trend-level recency proxies rather than full per-record timestamp allocation (per-record physics was not provided to 6B)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) confirmation of supply constraints or demand-upside narratives continues without a comparable surge in opposing demand-weakness signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence clusters (multiple independent records within ~2h) indicating demand deterioration or rapid supply normalization, reassess for a bullish-to-neutral transition."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Headline mix remains elevated (supply risk + policy + demand uncertainty) while contradiction indicators rise."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses toward neutral (|score| < 20) with rising contradiction and sparse fresh evidence."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 9,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper.",
 "Admitted set is constrained to copper-relevant drivers (supply constraints/disruptions, electrification/grid/infrastructure demand, policy/trade/inventory context).",
 "Authority tier counts are aggregated at the trend level and are not de-duplicated across overlapping evidence bundles; use as a relative indicator only.",
 "No late-breaking invalidation sentinel fired: no clearly clustered, <=2h, opposing hard invalidator was present in the admitted set."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}