Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium (U3O8) futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: authority_skew_low_tier_dominant
- generated_at: 2026-04-25 23:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Uranium (U3O8) futures market perception is biased to the upside over the next 6–24h as demand-side narratives (reactor build pipeline / microreactors / tech power demand) continue to dominate. | 64 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 46 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Supply-tightness framing remains a supportive backdrop (deficit/shortfall/contracting narratives), reinforcing upside conviction unless fresh counterevidence emerges. | 67 | up | stable | 24h | false | 46 |
| uranium | B-UR-003 | Volatility risk is elevated: geopolitical and regulatory headlines can flip near-term sentiment without fully invalidating the underlying bullish mass. | 58 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium (U3O8) futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 48,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium (U3O8) futures market perception is biased to the upside over the next 6\u201324h as demand-side narratives (reactor build pipeline / microreactors / tech power demand) continue to dominate.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Demand growth narrative: microreactors and advanced reactor build-out (NRC/Air Force, TerraPower/Natrium)",
"Tech-sector nuclear/energy tie-ins amplifying nuclear fuel cycle attention",
"Energy security framing (policy and geopolitical discourse)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Nuclear safety incident / containment-breach narratives can dampen risk appetite for the broader nuclear complex"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-tightness framing remains a supportive backdrop (deficit/shortfall/contracting narratives), reinforcing upside conviction unless fresh counterevidence emerges.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Supply deficit / contracting narratives (e.g., producer/market commentary and related risk-anomaly flags)",
"Utility/industry attention to securing fuel cycle inputs"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any fresh, high-trust evidence of supply normalisation or demand delays inside the next cycle"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: geopolitical and regulatory headlines can flip near-term sentiment without fully invalidating the underlying bullish mass.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical supply-risk and sanctions narratives intersecting the nuclear complex",
"Regulatory/political headline sensitivity (policy proposals, safety incidents, sanctions talk)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 7,
"B": 11,
"C": 12,
"D": 560,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_24h_share_0_1": 0.74,
"mid_24_72h_share_0_1": 0.26,
"stale_72h_plus_share_0_1": 0.0,
"notes": "Estimated from trend-level newest/oldest timestamps and sample freshness flags; overlaps between trends may inflate absolute counts."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_dominant",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Directional mass is broad and fresh, but evidence tiers skew heavily toward lower-authority sources; increases fragility to headline whipsaw."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"flag": "geopolitical_policy_headline_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Geopolitical/regulatory narratives (sanctions, negotiations, safety incidents) can introduce fast sentiment reversals even when the medium-term thesis remains intact."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish directional state persists AND no fresh opposing high-trust signals create a contradiction spike in the next cycle."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially OR a late-breaking, high-trust opposing headline appears within a 2h window."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh opposing signals (<2h) arrive OR a hard market-structural invalidator appears."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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"velocity_score": 2,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 2,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to uranium from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"Directional mass is driven by multiple fresh, reinforcing nuclear-demand and supply-tightness narratives; explicit contradiction sets are absent in provided inputs.",
"Timeseries values are conservative approximations derived from trend-level recency/heat cues (not full per-record timestamp bucketing); use for shape testing only."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}