Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium (U3O8) futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: authority_skew_low_tier_dominant
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25 23:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Uranium (U3O8) futures market perception is biased to the upside over the next 6–24h as demand-side narratives (reactor build pipeline / microreactors / tech power demand) continue to dominate. 64 up accelerating 6h false 46
uranium B-UR-002 Supply-tightness framing remains a supportive backdrop (deficit/shortfall/contracting narratives), reinforcing upside conviction unless fresh counterevidence emerges. 67 up stable 24h false 46
uranium B-UR-003 Volatility risk is elevated: geopolitical and regulatory headlines can flip near-term sentiment without fully invalidating the underlying bullish mass. 58 mixed accelerating 24h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium (U3O8) futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 48,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium (U3O8) futures market perception is biased to the upside over the next 6\u201324h as demand-side narratives (reactor build pipeline / microreactors / tech power demand) continue to dominate.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Demand growth narrative: microreactors and advanced reactor build-out (NRC/Air Force, TerraPower/Natrium)",
 "Tech-sector nuclear/energy tie-ins amplifying nuclear fuel cycle attention",
 "Energy security framing (policy and geopolitical discourse)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Nuclear safety incident / containment-breach narratives can dampen risk appetite for the broader nuclear complex"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply-tightness framing remains a supportive backdrop (deficit/shortfall/contracting narratives), reinforcing upside conviction unless fresh counterevidence emerges.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply deficit / contracting narratives (e.g., producer/market commentary and related risk-anomaly flags)",
 "Utility/industry attention to securing fuel cycle inputs"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any fresh, high-trust evidence of supply normalisation or demand delays inside the next cycle"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: geopolitical and regulatory headlines can flip near-term sentiment without fully invalidating the underlying bullish mass.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical supply-risk and sanctions narratives intersecting the nuclear complex",
 "Regulatory/political headline sensitivity (policy proposals, safety incidents, sanctions talk)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 7,
 "B": 11,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 560,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h_share_0_1": 0.74,
 "mid_24_72h_share_0_1": 0.26,
 "stale_72h_plus_share_0_1": 0.0,
 "notes": "Estimated from trend-level newest/oldest timestamps and sample freshness flags; overlaps between trends may inflate absolute counts."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_dominant",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Directional mass is broad and fresh, but evidence tiers skew heavily toward lower-authority sources; increases fragility to headline whipsaw."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "flag": "geopolitical_policy_headline_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Geopolitical/regulatory narratives (sanctions, negotiations, safety incidents) can introduce fast sentiment reversals even when the medium-term thesis remains intact."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional state persists AND no fresh opposing high-trust signals create a contradiction spike in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially OR a late-breaking, high-trust opposing headline appears within a 2h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh opposing signals (<2h) arrive OR a hard market-structural invalidator appears."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 44,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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 {
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 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to uranium from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "Directional mass is driven by multiple fresh, reinforcing nuclear-demand and supply-tightness narratives; explicit contradiction sets are absent in provided inputs.",
 "Timeseries values are conservative approximations derived from trend-level recency/heat cues (not full per-record timestamp bucketing); use for shape testing only."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}