Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25 23:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Silver futures are likely to remain rangebound to slightly softer over the next 24h as the most recent (<=6h) silver-linked signals skew cautious/mixed and lack strong corroborated upside catalysts. 56 mixed accelerating 24h false 68
silver B-SI-002 Silver downside is partially buffered by investment/ETF-flow narratives and intermittent bullish forecasting signals, limiting conviction in a clean bearish trend. 52 up fading 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260425-0001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T23:05:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 24, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SI-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Silver futures are likely to remain rangebound to slightly softer over the next 24h as the most recent (<=6h) silver-linked signals skew cautious/mixed and lack strong corroborated upside catalysts.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Recent silver-linked market-open / mixed-cues commentary", "Precious-metals caution spillover (macro/volatility cues)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-002" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-002", "market": "silver", "claim": "Silver downside is partially buffered by investment/ETF-flow narratives and intermittent bullish forecasting signals, limiting conviction in a clean bearish trend.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Silver investment/ETF-related institutional positioning chatter (silver-linked product proxy)", "Isolated bullish silver forecast signal (single-source)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 55, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 24, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SI-001", "B-SI-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 2, "D": 2, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 2, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "mid_24_72h": 2, "stale_72h_plus": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "contradiction_elevated", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "details": "Silver-linked inputs include both supportive (investment/forecast) and cautionary (mixed/open/pressure) cues without a clear dominant thesis." }, { "flag": "authority_thin", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "details": "Silver-specific signals are largely non-Tier-A and include singleton/low-diversity items; authority confirmation remains low." }, { "flag": "silver_specific_signal_sparsity", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "details": "Only a small subset of the broader corpus maps cleanly to silver; macro-to-silver inference increases fragility." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "confidence": "high", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and fresh evidence remains mixed." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh (<=6h) silver-linked signals cluster strongly in one direction or contradiction_ratio drops materially (cleaner consensus)." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a new opposing cluster arrives within <=2h that flips net pressure by >=25 points (late-breaking invalidation candidate)." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "action": "watch_short_bias", "trigger_condition": "Consider bearish-bias watch if directional_score_signed <= -20 with >=2 independent fresh silver-linked confirmations." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Consider bullish-bias watch if directional_score_signed >= +20 with >=2 independent fresh silver-linked confirmations (not singletons)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "silver" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.55, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.55, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.55, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.55, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.55, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": 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"velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.56, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -2, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": -2, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.56, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -3, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": -3, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.56, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, 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"2026-04-25T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -4, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": -4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.57, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -5, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": -5, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.57, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -5, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, 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"neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -10, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": -10, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.59, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -12, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": -12, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.6, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -14, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": -14, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.6, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -16, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": -16, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.61, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -18, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": -18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.61, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 2, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Silver scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code.", "Silver-mapped inputs were limited; many corpus items were gold/USD/macro and not force-mapped to silver.", "State change set to 'unchanged' due to missing reliable prior-state memory in provided input." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }