Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25 07:02 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Gold futures are more likely to remain rangebound than trend strongly over the next 24h due to insufficient fresh, gold-specific catalyst evidence... 57 flat stable 24h false 78
gold B-gold-002 Residual geopolitical-risk signals create a slight upside-skew option for gold, but the support is fragile because most corroborating evidence is stale... 52 up fading 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260425T070213Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T07:02:13Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 34,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to remain rangebound than trend strongly over the next 24h due to insufficient fresh, gold-specific catalyst evidence in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity_last_24h",
 "stale_geopolitical_narratives_outside_30d_window"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-gold-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Residual geopolitical-risk signals create a slight upside-skew option for gold, but the support is fragile because most corroborating evidence is stale and the only very-recent risk marker is seed-level.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "risk_off_sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-gold-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "invalidated_stale",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 24,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-001",
 "B-gold-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 52,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 82,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 1,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 4,
 "notes": "Fresh bucket is a seed-level risk anomaly with unmaterialised evidence; most other supporting narratives are >72h old and largely outside the 30d window."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Most admitted geopolitical/macro support signals are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09, which is outside the 30d window ending 2026-04-25."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Last-24h buckets contain near-zero admissible, gold-specific evidence; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Geopolitical-risk narratives can re-accelerate quickly; current read lacks corroboration, raising sensitivity to sudden headline flips."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "unmaterialised_seed_signal",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A very recent risk anomaly is present but evidence records were not materialised; treat as watch-only until corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while freshness_confidence=low and conviction_score_0_100 < 45."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate watch if new corroborated geopolitical-risk updates arrive within the next 0-6h window (2+ independent sources)."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if fresh, multi-source geopolitical escalation evidence emerges AND no fresh counterevidence appears; would lift directional_score_signed above +20."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 4,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Gold target resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "Most high-volume geopolitical/macro narratives are stale (published 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09) relative to snapshot 2026-04-25 and largely outside the 30d window; stale suppression applied.",
 "A very recent (2026-04-25) risk anomaly exists but is seed-level with unmaterialised evidence; treated as minimal bullish pressure only."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}