Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_gold_specific (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-001 Gold futures sentiment dominated by stale/non-recent information; near-term direction is mixed/rangebound. 62 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-002 Residual geopolitics/logistics risk may provide background support for gold, but lack of fresh corroboration keeps the effect weak and fragile. 54 up fading 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260425T000000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 30, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-001", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures sentiment signal is dominated by stale/non-recent information; near-term direction is therefore mixed/rangebound rather than confidently up or down.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "insufficient fresh macro inputs (real rates / USD) in admitted set", "stale-only gold-specific signals (trade/logistics/ETF dynamics)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-002", "market": "gold", "claim": "Residual geopolitics/logistics risk themes may provide background support for gold, but the lack of fresh corroboration keeps the effect weak and fragile.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk (background)", "trade/logistics disruption narratives (stale)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "no fresh confirmation in the last 24h within admitted gold-mapped evidence" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 28, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-001", "B-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 1, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 2, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "fresh_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt72h": 3 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity_gold_specific", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "detail": "Gold-mapped admitted evidence is sparse and not fresh; signal reliability for 6h/24h is degraded." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "detail": "Most gold-relevant items are >72h old; stale suppression applied and momentum marked weakening." }, { "flag": "echo_concentration_vip_lane", "market": "gold", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Several gold-specific items are singleton/low-diversity VIP records; treat as fragile until corroborated." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral stance while fresh gold-specific evidence count remains low and stale suppression remains active." }, { "market": "gold", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if fresh (<=24h) macro drivers (real rates / USD) or official/institutional flow data enters the admitted set." }, { "market": "gold", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If a new, high-trust directional catalyst appears within <=2h and is independently corroborated, reassess for a direction flip from neutral." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" 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"conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "Gold-mapped evidence was primarily from VIP/outlier lane items referencing gold/GLD/trade dynamics; these were stale (>72h), so directional conviction was suppressed to neutral_mixed.", "Most broad geopolitical conflict trends in the provided set could not be confidently alias-mapped to the canonical 'gold' market without force-mapping; they were treated as background context only." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }