Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: policy_regulatory_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B1-uranium-supply-deficit-demand-pull | Near-term uranium futures sentiment skews upward as supply-deficit / contracting narratives combine with continued nuclear buildout and defence microreactor momentum. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 49 |
| uranium | B2-uranium-policy-volatility-pullback-risk | Even if the directional bias remains positive, policy/regulatory frictions raise the risk of short-horizon choppiness and partial mean reversion. | 44 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 49 |
| uranium | B3-uranium-geopolitical-supply-risk-bid | Geopolitical nuclear-risk headlines are more likely to support a risk-premium bid in uranium than to sustainably depress it over the next 24 hours. | 55 | up | stable | 24h | false | 49 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis-uranium-20260424T140000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1-uranium-supply-deficit-demand-pull", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term uranium futures sentiment skews upward as supply-deficit / contracting narratives combine with continued nuclear buildout and defence microreactor momentum.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Supply deficit / contracting narrative (pricing-sensitive)", "Microreactor / defence deployment selection headlines (demand optionality)", "Broad nuclear revival coverage sustaining demand expectations" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Regulatory friction / opposition narratives (restart delays, permitting friction)", "Policy-cost / subsidy backlash narratives (political drag risk)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B2-uranium-policy-volatility-pullback-risk", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Even if the directional bias remains positive, policy/regulatory frictions raise the risk of short-horizon choppiness and partial mean reversion.", "probability_pct": 44, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Grid / restart regulatory opposition headlines", "Subsidy/cost scrutiny narratives", "Geopolitical headline-risk sensitivity" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Fresh supply-deficit headlines and broader nuclear buildout momentum" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B3-uranium-geopolitical-supply-risk-bid", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Geopolitical nuclear-risk headlines are more likely to support a risk-premium bid in uranium than to sustainably depress it over the next 24 hours.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Geopolitical supply-risk premium dynamics", "Energy security framing increasing strategic procurement bias" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Demand-side fear / safety backlash could reduce near-term risk appetite" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1-uranium-supply-deficit-demand-pull", "B2-uranium-policy-volatility-pullback-risk", "B3-uranium-geopolitical-supply-risk-bid" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 3, "B": 14, "C": 9, "D": 120, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 9, "fresh_6_24h_est": 18, "fresh_24_72h_est": 8, "stale_gt_72h_est": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "policy_regulatory_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "details": "Bullish demand/supply narratives coexist with restart/permitting opposition and subsidy-cost scrutiny, raising short-horizon chop risk." }, { "flag": "authority_gap_vs_mass", "severity": "medium", "details": "Directional mass is broad and fresh, but a large share of supporting coverage is lower-tier; treat conviction as real but not fully institutional-confirmed." }, { "flag": "narrative_overlap_doublecount_risk", "severity": "low", "details": "Multiple admitted trends share overlapping evidence pools; aggregate tier counts and evidence breadth are indicative rather than strictly additive." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "watch_long_bias", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Fresh confirmation of supply-deficit/contracting narrative persists without a new, concrete demand-side invalidator in the next 6\u201324h window." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Any additional regulatory/policy pushback headlines (restart delays, cost backlash) cluster into the most recent 2\u20136h window." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh records (<=2h) shift from demand-positive to demand-negative framing (e.g., cancellations/halts rather than generic debate)." }, { "action": "stay_flat", "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Directional score compresses into neutral band (|score| < 20) while contradiction ratio rises above ~0.45." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": 11, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 57, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 57, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": -16, "acceleration_score": -24, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 21, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 72, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 72, "velocity_score": 14, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 76, "bullish_pressure_score": 82, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 76, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 37, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 69, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 9, "net_sentiment_score": 69, "velocity_score": -7, "acceleration_score": -11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 63, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 63, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 61, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 61, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 59, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 59, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 61, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 61, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 68, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 9, "net_sentiment_score": 68, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 71, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 71, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 69, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 9, "net_sentiment_score": 69, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 66, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 66, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 64, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 64, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 76, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 2, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory provided); state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.", "Signals are nuclear-sector dense; uranium direction inferred from demand/supply framing rather than direct price prints (no live pricing in 6B).", "Aggregate tier counts are indicative; overlapping evidence across trends can inflate naive totals." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }