Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-MIXED_DIRECTIONAL_CORPUS
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24T14:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SILVER-6H-01 Near-term silver futures skew slightly lower as macro/geopolitical uncertainty and real-rate sensitivity outweigh marginal supportive flow narratives. 55 down stable 6h false 64

| silver | B-SILVER-24H-02 | Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to trade choppy/rangebound as bearish macro narratives face offsetting supportive catalysts (precious-metals rotation, episodic USD softness, and supply/industry headlines with ambiguous near-term price impact). | 58 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 64

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_2026-04-24T14:30:00Z_silver", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T14:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SILVER-6H-01", "market": "silver", "claim": "Near-term silver futures skew slightly lower as macro/geopolitical uncertainty and real-rate sensitivity outweigh marginal supportive flow narratives.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "monetary_policy", "usd_strength", "real_rates", "investment_flows", "geopolitical_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SILVER-24H-02" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-SILVER-24H-02", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to trade choppy/rangebound as bearish macro narratives face offsetting supportive catalysts (precious-metals rotation, episodic USD softness, and supply/industry headlines with ambiguous near-term price impact).", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "investment_flows", "usd_strength", "industrial_demand", "mine_supply", "monetary_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SILVER-6H-01" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 58, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SILVER-6H-01", "B-SILVER-24H-02" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 1, "B": 2, "C": 10, "D": 271, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 5, "fresh_6_24h": 2, "stale_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-MIXED_DIRECTIONAL_CORPUS", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "description": "Material mixed-direction evidence in the most recent window; directional bias remains below the bearish/bullish activation threshold." }, { "flag_id": "RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_SKEW", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "description": "Evidence corpus is broad but dominated by lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant." }, { "flag_id": "RF-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW_RISK", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "description": "Rapid alternation between decline/stability narratives increases rangebound/whipsaw risk." }, { "flag_id": "RF_UNKNOWN_PRIOR_STATE", "market": "silver", "severity": "low", "description": "Prior cycle state not provided; state_change computed with unknown prior context." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "confidence": "high", "action_label": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 and contradiction_ratio remains elevated." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility monitoring if contradiction_ratio rises further (>=0.65) alongside an increase in fresh evidence volume." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Watch for a directional break if 2+ independent fresh signals within <=2h align strongly in one direction (net directional_score_signed moves beyond +/-20)." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "action_label": "watch_short_bias", "trigger_condition": "Short-bias watch only if bearish pressure re-accelerates (directional_score_signed <= -25) with declining contradiction_ratio (<=0.45)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "silver" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -18, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 59, "net_sentiment_score": -18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.48, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -20, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 60, "net_sentiment_score": -20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.49, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -22, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 61, "net_sentiment_score": -22, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.5, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -24, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 62, "net_sentiment_score": -24, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.5, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -26, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 63, "net_sentiment_score": -26, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.51, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -28, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 64, "net_sentiment_score": -28, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.52, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -27, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 64, "net_sentiment_score": -27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.55, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -25, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 62, "net_sentiment_score": -25, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.56, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -23, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 61, "net_sentiment_score": -23, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.57, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -22, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 61, "net_sentiment_score": -22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.56, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -20, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 60, "net_sentiment_score": -20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.55, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -18, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 59, "net_sentiment_score": -18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.54, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -16, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 58, "net_sentiment_score": -16, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.55, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -14, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 57, "net_sentiment_score": -14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.56, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -15, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 58, "net_sentiment_score": -15, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.58, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -13, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 57, "net_sentiment_score": -13, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.57, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -10, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 55, "net_sentiment_score": -10, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.56, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -8, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 54, "net_sentiment_score": -8, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.57, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -6, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 53, "net_sentiment_score": -6, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.58, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -4, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 52, "net_sentiment_score": -4, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.59, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -7, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 54, "net_sentiment_score": -7, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.6, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -9, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 55, "net_sentiment_score": -9, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.59, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -11, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 56, "net_sentiment_score": -11, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.58, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -12, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 56, "net_sentiment_score": -12, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.58, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 64, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 16, "signal_regime": "weakening_bearish" } } }