Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: below_min_evidence_threshold
- generated_at: 2026-04-24T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-gold-24h-rangebound-001 | Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound over the next 24h unless a fresh macro (real-rates/USD) or acute geopolitical catalyst emerges. | 58 | flat | fading | 24h | false | 78 |
| gold | B-gold-upside-tail-002 | Residual (stale) geopolitics/logistics disruption narrative keeps a modest upside tail-risk bid in gold over the next 6–24h, but conviction is capped without fresh corroboration. | 52 | up | fading | 6h | false | 78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260424-120000Z-gold", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-gold-24h-rangebound-001", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound over the next 24h unless a fresh macro (real-rates/USD) or acute geopolitical catalyst emerges.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "data_sparsity_in_last_24h", "stale_geopolitical_risk_context_without_fresh_confirmation" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-gold-upside-tail-002", "market": "gold", "claim": "Residual (stale) geopolitics/logistics disruption narrative keeps a modest upside tail-risk bid in gold over the next 6\u201324h, but conviction is capped without fresh corroboration.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk_backdrop", "trade/logistics_disruption_narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 28, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-gold-24h-rangebound-001", "B-gold-upside-tail-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 1, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 1, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "mid_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 2 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "gold", "flag": "below_min_evidence_threshold", "severity": "high", "details": "Gold-mapped admitted signals < min_evidence_threshold (3). Direction suppressed to neutral_mixed per flight-plan operational_flags." }, { "market": "gold", "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "high", "details": "Most gold-relevant admitted signals are >72h old; stale suppression applied and momentum marked weakening." }, { "market": "gold", "flag": "data_sparsity_last_24h", "severity": "high", "details": "No meaningful fresh (0\u201324h) gold-specific evidence in the admitted corpus; increased fragility." }, { "market": "gold", "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Geopolitical/logistics narratives can re-price quickly; with low fresh confirmation, reversal risk held at medium despite neutral state." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Stay neutral while admitted gold evidence remains below threshold and freshness_confidence=low.", "label": "stay_flat" }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) gold-relevant signals appear (macro/FX/rates or verified geopolitical shock).", "label": "reversal_watch" }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Watch for volatility expansion if fresh geopolitical escalation or sudden USD/real-rate move enters the corpus within 6h.", "label": "volatility_watch" }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Consider long-bias watch only if fresh corroborated safe-haven flow evidence appears with low contradiction and rising directional_mass.", "label": "watch_long_bias" } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [ "gold" ] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, 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"2026-04-24T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 0, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "Gold-mapped evidence primarily from VIP outliers; broader trend set was predominantly geopolitics/oil-adjacent and could not be confidently mapped to gold under alias rules.", "Min evidence threshold (3) not met for gold after market-mapping + recency filtering; directional view suppressed to neutral_mixed.", "Timeseries buckets for last 24h contain no admitted gold evidence; bucket values are conservative placeholders reflecting low conviction and high fragility due to data sparsity." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }