Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-1 Near-term copper futures bias remains upward as supply-risk/constraint narratives outweigh supply-expansion signals, with supportive risk-premium pricing behaviour. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
copper B-copper-2 Over the next 24 hours, copper futures are more likely to stay bid (or grind higher) than to trend lower, but with elevated whipsaw risk from mixed demand vs supply headlines. 58 up stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260424T060000Z-copper", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures (HG)", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-1", "market": "copper", "claim": "Near-term copper futures bias remains upward as supply-risk/constraint narratives outweigh supply-expansion signals, with supportive risk-premium pricing behaviour.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply_disruption", "inventory_exchange_stocks", "trade_policy", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [ "capacity-expansion / supply-add headlines (bearish pressure)", "explicit 'mixed signals' framing from macro commentary" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-2", "market": "copper", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, copper futures are more likely to stay bid (or grind higher) than to trend lower, but with elevated whipsaw risk from mixed demand vs supply headlines.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "energy_transition_demand", "china_policy", "mine_supply_disruption" ], "contradicted_by": [ "incremental supply-add developments", "policy-driven demand-softening headlines (thin / single-source items)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 41, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-1", "B-copper-2" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 6, "B": 4, "C": 3, "D": 9, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "signals_with_updates_0_6h": 6, "signals_with_updates_6_24h": 2, "signals_with_updates_24_72h": 1, "signals_with_updates_gt_72h": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw", "market": "copper", "severity": "medium", "details": "Admitted corpus includes both supply-tightness (bullish) and supply-add / mixed-demand framing (bearish or dampening)." }, { "flag": "authority_gap_vs_mass", "market": "copper", "severity": "medium", "details": "Directional mass is broad, but authority-tier confirmation is only moderate; conviction is therefore capped below high-conviction." }, { "flag": "echo_and_low_tier_overhang", "market": "copper", "severity": "medium", "details": "A meaningful share of recent reinforcement comes from lower-tier sources; treat intraday swings as potentially fragile." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) supply-constraint/inventory-tightness confirmations continue without equally fresh supply-add counterevidence." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) bearish signals appear (e.g., concrete supply-add / demand-hit) causing contradiction_ratio to jump materially." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If mixed headlines persist and the net directional score oscillates around the bullish threshold (+20) within the next 6 hours." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 9, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior market state not provided; state_change computed against an assumed neutral baseline (unknown_prior).", "source_tier_counts reflect admitted-signal tier presence, not de-duplicated unique evidence records.", "No explicit contradictory-record linkage was provided (contradictions[] empty); counterevidence inferred from mixed-signal labels and supply-add vs supply-risk driver clash." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }