Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-24 08:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-24h-01 | Net upward price pressure remains dominant for coffee futures over the next 24h, driven by supply-side constraints (logistics disruption risk, labour/production cost pressures) and recent pricing-strength signals. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| coffee | B-coffee-6h-01 | Short-horizon (6h) sentiment tilts upward after fresh price-strength signals, but the move is vulnerable to quick mean-reversion because broader drivers are mostly slow-burn and partially stale. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
| coffee | B-coffee-24h-02 | A countervailing bearish pocket persists: harvest-volume / retail price-reduction narratives can reassert and cap upside, increasing reversal risk if confirmed by additional fresh sources. | 42 | down | fading | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260424T080000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Net upward price pressure remains dominant for coffee futures over the next 24h, driven by supply-side constraints (logistics disruption risk, labour/production cost pressures) and recent pricing-strength signals.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"shipping_freight",
"labour_costs",
"pricing (robusta strength / ICE-linked pricing narrative)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-24h-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-6h-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Short-horizon (6h) sentiment tilts upward after fresh price-strength signals, but the move is vulnerable to quick mean-reversion because broader drivers are mostly slow-burn and partially stale.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"pricing (recent robusta/ICE-linked signal)",
"near-term market sentiment impulse"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-24h-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-02",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "A countervailing bearish pocket persists: harvest-volume / retail price-reduction narratives can reassert and cap upside, increasing reversal risk if confirmed by additional fresh sources.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"crop output / harvest volume narratives",
"retail price reduction signalling demand/stock easing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-24h-01",
"B-coffee-6h-01"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-24h-01",
"B-coffee-6h-01"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 85,
"B": 13,
"C": 6,
"D": 265,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_count": 2,
"fresh_6_24h_count": 1,
"stale_over_24h_count": 11,
"notes": "Fresh impulse is concentrated in a small number of very recent pricing/brand signals; most other drivers are persistent but older (slow-burn) narratives."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Many supporting drivers are slow-burn and not heavily refreshed in the last 24h; conviction relies partly on older evidence."
},
{
"risk_flag": "counterevidence_present",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Bearish pocket present via harvest-volume / retail price-reduction narratives; could raise reversal risk if refreshed."
},
{
"risk_flag": "data_sparsity_last_24h",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Last-24h evidence appears concentrated in a few timestamps; raises fragility despite bullish direction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=24h) confirmation appears around supply constraints or continued ICE/robusta price strength with low contradiction."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh multi-source signals re-emerge indicating easing supply or harvest-volume-driven price softening."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If new headlines cluster within a short window (<=6h) on shipping/logistics disruptions or policy/tariff actions impacting flows."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence dries up and contradiction rises, pushing direction back into neutral_mixed."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -18,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 8,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 28,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 28,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 8,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee.",
"No explicit contradiction objects supplied; contradiction ratio treated as low unless implied by counterevidence.",
"State-change set to 'unchanged' because no prior state memory was provided; treat as unknown-prior in downstream logic.",
"Excluded at least one non-coffee trend (e.g., rice-focused USDA item) as out-of-scope for single-market coffee."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}