Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24 08:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-24h-01 Net upward price pressure remains dominant for coffee futures over the next 24h, driven by supply-side constraints (logistics disruption risk, labour/production cost pressures) and recent pricing-strength signals. 62 up stable 24h false 55
coffee B-coffee-6h-01 Short-horizon (6h) sentiment tilts upward after fresh price-strength signals, but the move is vulnerable to quick mean-reversion because broader drivers are mostly slow-burn and partially stale. 58 up accelerating 6h false 55
coffee B-coffee-24h-02 A countervailing bearish pocket persists: harvest-volume / retail price-reduction narratives can reassert and cap upside, increasing reversal risk if confirmed by additional fresh sources. 42 down fading 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260424T080000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-01",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Net upward price pressure remains dominant for coffee futures over the next 24h, driven by supply-side constraints (logistics disruption risk, labour/production cost pressures) and recent pricing-strength signals.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "shipping_freight",
 "labour_costs",
 "pricing (robusta strength / ICE-linked pricing narrative)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-24h-02"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-6h-01",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Short-horizon (6h) sentiment tilts upward after fresh price-strength signals, but the move is vulnerable to quick mean-reversion because broader drivers are mostly slow-burn and partially stale.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "pricing (recent robusta/ICE-linked signal)",
 "near-term market sentiment impulse"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-24h-02"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-02",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "A countervailing bearish pocket persists: harvest-volume / retail price-reduction narratives can reassert and cap upside, increasing reversal risk if confirmed by additional fresh sources.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "crop output / harvest volume narratives",
 "retail price reduction signalling demand/stock easing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-24h-01",
 "B-coffee-6h-01"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-24h-01",
 "B-coffee-6h-01"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 85,
 "B": 13,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 265,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_count": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h_count": 1,
 "stale_over_24h_count": 11,
 "notes": "Fresh impulse is concentrated in a small number of very recent pricing/brand signals; most other drivers are persistent but older (slow-burn) narratives."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Many supporting drivers are slow-burn and not heavily refreshed in the last 24h; conviction relies partly on older evidence."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "counterevidence_present",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Bearish pocket present via harvest-volume / retail price-reduction narratives; could raise reversal risk if refreshed."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_sparsity_last_24h",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Last-24h evidence appears concentrated in a few timestamps; raises fragility despite bullish direction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=24h) confirmation appears around supply constraints or continued ICE/robusta price strength with low contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh multi-source signals re-emerge indicating easing supply or harvest-volume-driven price softening."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If new headlines cluster within a short window (<=6h) on shipping/logistics disruptions or policy/tariff actions impacting flows."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence dries up and contradiction rises, pushing direction back into neutral_mixed."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -2,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 28,
 "acceleration_score": 26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 28,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 8,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects supplied; contradiction ratio treated as low unless implied by counterevidence.",
 "State-change set to 'unchanged' because no prior state memory was provided; treat as unknown-prior in downstream logic.",
 "Excluded at least one non-coffee trend (e.g., rice-focused USDA item) as out-of-scope for single-market coffee."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}