Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-24 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Coffee futures (KC) remain skewed to upside pressure as supply-chain friction, logistics delays, and labour/input-cost stressors continue to constrain effective supply and raise delivered costs. |
62 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
63 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Downside/mean-reversion risk persists if narratives of improved harvest volumes/retail price cuts broaden, signalling near-term easing in tightness or weaker pass-through. |
38 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
63 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Demand-side tone (retail expansion / specialty coffee growth) remains supportive but is not a near-term accelerator without fresh consumption or pricing datapoints. |
55 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_coffee_2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures (KC) remain skewed to upside pressure as supply-chain friction, logistics delays, and labour/input-cost stressors continue to constrain effective supply and raise delivered costs.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"labour_costs",
"crop_conditions_disease"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Downside/mean-reversion risk persists if narratives of improved harvest volumes/retail price cuts broaden, signalling near-term easing in tightness or weaker pass-through.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 36,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side tone (retail expansion / specialty coffee growth) remains supportive but is not a near-term accelerator without fresh consumption or pricing datapoints.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 66,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 10,
"B": 2,
"C": 0,
"D": 18,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"recent_24_72h": 6,
"stale_gt_72h": 4
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "No clear <=24h confirming catalyst for the bullish thesis; the signal is dominated by 24\u201372h and older background items."
},
{
"flag": "counterevidence_present",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Some downside-oriented narratives (e.g., harvest-volume/retail price reduction framing) exist and can tighten the range or trigger a pullback if they broaden."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Supply-risk narratives and easing-supply narratives coexist; absent fresh resolution, near-term direction is more fragile than the headline bias suggests."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "watch_long_bias: activate only if fresh (<=24h) confirmation of supply disruption/logistics tightening appears across multiple independent sources."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch: activate if harvest-volume / price-reduction narratives gain fresh (<=24h) breadth or if new data contradicts supply-tightness claims."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "stay_flat: maintain if the next cycle remains dominated by stale/background evidence with no fresh directional confirmation."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch: activate if geopolitical/logistics headlines re-accelerate (multiple records inside <=6h) even without clear direction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: coffee.",
"No explicit trend_state_memory/prior market state provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior.",
"Reversal risk elevated to medium due to presence of easing-supply/price-reduction narratives vs broader supply-risk backdrop; no <=2h late-breaking invalidator detected."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}