Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Coffee futures (KC) remain skewed to upside pressure as supply-chain friction, logistics delays, and labour/input-cost stressors continue to constrain effective supply and raise delivered costs. 62 up fading 24h false 63
coffee B-coffee-002 Downside/mean-reversion risk persists if narratives of improved harvest volumes/retail price cuts broaden, signalling near-term easing in tightness or weaker pass-through. 38 down stable 24h false 63
coffee B-coffee-003 Demand-side tone (retail expansion / specialty coffee growth) remains supportive but is not a near-term accelerator without fresh consumption or pricing datapoints. 55 up fading 6h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_coffee_2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures (KC) remain skewed to upside pressure as supply-chain friction, logistics delays, and labour/input-cost stressors continue to constrain effective supply and raise delivered costs.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "labour_costs",
 "crop_conditions_disease"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Downside/mean-reversion risk persists if narratives of improved harvest volumes/retail price cuts broaden, signalling near-term easing in tightness or weaker pass-through.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 36,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side tone (retail expansion / specialty coffee growth) remains supportive but is not a near-term accelerator without fresh consumption or pricing datapoints.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 66,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 10,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 18,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "recent_24_72h": 6,
 "stale_gt_72h": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "No clear <=24h confirming catalyst for the bullish thesis; the signal is dominated by 24\u201372h and older background items."
 },
 {
 "flag": "counterevidence_present",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Some downside-oriented narratives (e.g., harvest-volume/retail price reduction framing) exist and can tighten the range or trigger a pullback if they broaden."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Supply-risk narratives and easing-supply narratives coexist; absent fresh resolution, near-term direction is more fragile than the headline bias suggests."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "watch_long_bias: activate only if fresh (<=24h) confirmation of supply disruption/logistics tightening appears across multiple independent sources."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch: activate if harvest-volume / price-reduction narratives gain fresh (<=24h) breadth or if new data contradicts supply-tightness claims."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "stay_flat: maintain if the next cycle remains dominated by stale/background evidence with no fresh directional confirmation."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch: activate if geopolitical/logistics headlines re-accelerate (multiple records inside <=6h) even without clear direction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
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 },
 {
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
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 },
 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: coffee.",
 "No explicit trend_state_memory/prior market state provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior.",
 "Reversal risk elevated to medium due to presence of easing-supply/price-reduction narratives vs broader supply-risk backdrop; no <=2h late-breaking invalidator detected."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}