Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-contradiction-mixed
- generated_at: 2026-04-23T14:40:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-silver-1 |
Silver futures are more likely to trade choppy/rangebound than trend cleanly over the next 24h as macro/geopolitical narratives pull in opposite directions. |
56 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
| silver |
B-silver-2 |
Downside pressure (or capped upside) is modestly more probable than sustained upside in the next 6–24h, primarily due to hawkish/real-rate/strong-USD framing appearing repeatedly in the admitted corpus (often under 'precious metals' umbrella). |
53 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
68 |
| silver |
B-silver-3 |
Supply-side mining-project news is present but is more 'background' for near-term futures pricing (6–24h); it increases narrative noise more than it provides a near-term directional catalyst. |
62 |
flat |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260423T144000Z-silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T14:40:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 24,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-1",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures are more likely to trade choppy/rangebound than trend cleanly over the next 24h as macro/geopolitical narratives pull in opposite directions.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mixed macro impulse (USD/real-rates narrative vs. risk/uncertainty hedging)",
"conflicting short-horizon commentary (stability vs. decline vs. bounce-on-oil-correction)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"any single dominant catalyst that sharply shifts USD/real-rates expectations intraday",
"a broad, fresh, multi-source repricing narrative specifically for silver"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-2",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Downside pressure (or capped upside) is modestly more probable than sustained upside in the next 6\u201324h, primarily due to hawkish/real-rate/strong-USD framing appearing repeatedly in the admitted corpus (often under 'precious metals' umbrella).",
"probability_pct": 53,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"monetary-policy/real-rates narrative spilling into precious metals complex",
"USD strength / risk framing cited alongside precious-metals weakness"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"fresh, silver-specific evidence of strengthening investment flows/ETF accumulation dominating the tape",
"a clear USD reversal narrative with corroboration"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 26,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-3",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Supply-side mining-project news is present but is more 'background' for near-term futures pricing (6\u201324h); it increases narrative noise more than it provides a near-term directional catalyst.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"project-development / exploration / financing items are single-source or medium-term"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"a sudden, verified operational disruption/strike/outage at a major producing region",
"regulatory action that changes near-term deliverable supply expectations"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 24,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-silver-1",
"B-silver-2",
"B-silver-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 3,
"C": 11,
"D": 229,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 3,
"fresh_6_24h": 1,
"fresh_24_72h": 3,
"stale_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-contradiction-mixed",
"market": "silver",
"risk_type": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Admitted silver-related signals include both upside and downside framings (stability/rise vs. decline/precious-metals weakness), elevating whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-low-authority-mix",
"market": "silver",
"risk_type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Directional mass exists but authority-tier confirmation for silver-specific claims is limited; much of the breadth is lower-tier and/or 'precious metals' umbrella rather than silver-specific."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-narrative-whipsaw",
"market": "silver",
"risk_type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Macro/geopolitical drivers are not coherently aligned; small new headlines may flip intraday bias without warning."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance unless directional_score_signed moves beyond +/-20 with corroborated fresh multi-source confirmation."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction_ratio stays >0.6 while fresh evidence count rises (headline-driven chop risk)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if a fresh (<=2h) opposing cluster appears across 2+ independent sources and net sentiment flips sign materially."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": -1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: silver only.",
"Admission emphasised explicitly silver-tagged or precious-metals-complex items; gold-only items were excluded unless they materially referenced broad precious-metals pricing with plausible spillover.",
"Prior-state memory not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}