Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-contradiction-mixed
  • generated_at: 2026-04-23T14:40:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-1 Silver futures are more likely to trade choppy/rangebound than trend cleanly over the next 24h as macro/geopolitical narratives pull in opposite directions. 56 mixed stable 24h false 68
silver B-silver-2 Downside pressure (or capped upside) is modestly more probable than sustained upside in the next 6–24h, primarily due to hawkish/real-rate/strong-USD framing appearing repeatedly in the admitted corpus (often under 'precious metals' umbrella). 53 down fading 24h false 68
silver B-silver-3 Supply-side mining-project news is present but is more 'background' for near-term futures pricing (6–24h); it increases narrative noise more than it provides a near-term directional catalyst. 62 flat stable 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260423T144000Z-silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T14:40:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 24,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-1",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures are more likely to trade choppy/rangebound than trend cleanly over the next 24h as macro/geopolitical narratives pull in opposite directions.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mixed macro impulse (USD/real-rates narrative vs. risk/uncertainty hedging)",
 "conflicting short-horizon commentary (stability vs. decline vs. bounce-on-oil-correction)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "any single dominant catalyst that sharply shifts USD/real-rates expectations intraday",
 "a broad, fresh, multi-source repricing narrative specifically for silver"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-2",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Downside pressure (or capped upside) is modestly more probable than sustained upside in the next 6\u201324h, primarily due to hawkish/real-rate/strong-USD framing appearing repeatedly in the admitted corpus (often under 'precious metals' umbrella).",
 "probability_pct": 53,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary-policy/real-rates narrative spilling into precious metals complex",
 "USD strength / risk framing cited alongside precious-metals weakness"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "fresh, silver-specific evidence of strengthening investment flows/ETF accumulation dominating the tape",
 "a clear USD reversal narrative with corroboration"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 26,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-3",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Supply-side mining-project news is present but is more 'background' for near-term futures pricing (6\u201324h); it increases narrative noise more than it provides a near-term directional catalyst.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "project-development / exploration / financing items are single-source or medium-term"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "a sudden, verified operational disruption/strike/outage at a major producing region",
 "regulatory action that changes near-term deliverable supply expectations"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 24,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-1",
 "B-silver-2",
 "B-silver-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 11,
 "D": 229,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h": 1,
 "fresh_24_72h": 3,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-contradiction-mixed",
 "market": "silver",
 "risk_type": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "medium",
 "summary": "Admitted silver-related signals include both upside and downside framings (stability/rise vs. decline/precious-metals weakness), elevating whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-low-authority-mix",
 "market": "silver",
 "risk_type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "summary": "Directional mass exists but authority-tier confirmation for silver-specific claims is limited; much of the breadth is lower-tier and/or 'precious metals' umbrella rather than silver-specific."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-narrative-whipsaw",
 "market": "silver",
 "risk_type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "summary": "Macro/geopolitical drivers are not coherently aligned; small new headlines may flip intraday bias without warning."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance unless directional_score_signed moves beyond +/-20 with corroborated fresh multi-source confirmation."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction_ratio stays >0.6 while fresh evidence count rises (headline-driven chop risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a fresh (<=2h) opposing cluster appears across 2+ independent sources and net sentiment flips sign materially."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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 },
 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: silver only.",
 "Admission emphasised explicitly silver-tagged or precious-metals-complex items; gold-only items were excluded unless they materially referenced broad precious-metals pricing with plausible spillover.",
 "Prior-state memory not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}