Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-low-authority-share (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-23T14:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-6h-up-001 | Copper futures have a near-term upside bias over the next 6 hours as fresh, broad narrative flow favours electrification/grid capex and supply-tightness themes. | 60 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 42 |
| copper | B-copper-24h-up-003 | Copper futures are biased higher over the next 24 hours, with demand-growth (energy transition / infrastructure) narratives outweighing explicit fresh bearish counterevidence in the admitted corpus. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 42 |
| copper | B-copper-24h-mixed-002 | Copper futures upside could be capped or choppy if supply-relief narratives (mine capacity expansion / enabling permitting shifts) gain traction versus the demand-led story-flow. | 38 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260423T143000Z-copper", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T14:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-6h-up-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures have a near-term upside bias over the next 6 hours as fresh, broad narrative flow favours electrification/grid capex and supply-tightness themes.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Grid / transformer bottleneck narratives (implied copper intensity)", "EV infrastructure and electrification demand narrative", "Supply-risk headlines (e.g., acid shortage / disruptions) supporting scarcity framing", "Technical/positioning narrative: bullish flag framing present in the corpus" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-24h-mixed-002" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 71, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-24h-up-003", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures are biased higher over the next 24 hours, with demand-growth (energy transition / infrastructure) narratives outweighing explicit fresh bearish counterevidence in the admitted corpus.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Energy transition demand (EVs, grid buildout, offshore wind) appears as a dominant recurring driver", "Supply chain tightness / disruption language is common in the admitted set", "Multiple independent sources refreshed within the last few hours, increasing recency-weighted mass" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-24h-mixed-002" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 73, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-24h-mixed-002", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures upside could be capped or choppy if supply-relief narratives (mine capacity expansion / enabling permitting shifts) gain traction versus the demand-led story-flow.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Mine capacity expansion signal (e.g., Toromocho capacity expansion theme)", "Regulatory/permitting signals that could enable incremental supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-24h-up-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-6h-up-001", "B-copper-24h-up-003", "B-copper-24h-mixed-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 23, "B": 6, "C": 9, "D": 410, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 68, "fresh_6_24h_est": 120, "stale_gt_24h_est": 260 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-low-authority-share", "market": "copper", "severity": "medium", "description": "Directional mass is broad, but the admitted corpus shows a high share of lower-tier sources; conviction is therefore more fragile than the directional score alone implies." }, { "flag_id": "RF-thematic-overhang-energy-transition", "market": "copper", "severity": "low", "description": "A large portion of bullish pressure is thematic (grid/EV/energy-transition demand). This is not counterevidence, but it increases narrative-whipsaw sensitivity." }, { "flag_id": "RF-counterevidence-present-supply-relief", "market": "copper", "severity": "low", "description": "Some admitted signals imply potential supply relief (capacity expansion / enabling permitting). This is currently smaller than the demand/tightness narrative mass." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "high", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish label while fresh evidence continues to refresh (<=24h) and no independent bearish counter-cluster emerges." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if directional score remains bullish but fragility rises (e.g., authority confirmation drops and/or contradiction ratio rises)." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch if 2+ independent fresh bearish signals arrive within 2 hours and the net directional score falls toward neutral (|score| < 20)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, 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"bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 81, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 68, "bullish_pressure_score": 84, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 68, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 70, "bullish_pressure_score": 85, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 70, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 69, "bullish_pressure_score": 85, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 69, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 72, "bullish_pressure_score": 86, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 72, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 11, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['copper'].", "No explicit contradictions were provided in the admitted trend set; reversal risk is therefore driven primarily by limited inferred counterpressure (supply-relief signals) rather than fresh opposing clusters.", "Prior state was not provided to 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' as a conservative placeholder." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }