Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: (unavailable)
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-22 22:15 UTC
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SILVER-001 | Silver likely to trade choppy/rangebound over next 6h; bullish safe‑haven/industrial narratives are being countered by rate‑policy and headline swings. | 58 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 74 |
| silver | B-SILVER-002 | Net 24h bias modestly upward but fragile: if USD/real‑rate expectations firm, silver's upside attempt is likely to stall or retrace. | 52 | up | fading | 24h | false | 74 |
| silver | B-SILVER-003 | Reversal/whipsaw risk elevated in the next 24h because opposing directional framings (rise vs decline) are both being refreshed. | 70 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260422-silver-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T22:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver is more likely to trade choppy/rangebound than to sustain a clean breakout over the next 6h, as bullish safe-haven/industrial narratives are being actively countered by rate-policy and headline-driven swings.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand",
"industrial demand / supply-deficit framing supporting upside bias",
"policy/real-rates sensitivity creating near-term headwinds"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"silver-decline / consolidation narratives in the same 24h window"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Net 24h bias is modestly upward, but fragile: if USD/real-rate expectations firm, silver\u2019s upside attempt is likely to stall or retrace.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"safe-haven bid from geopolitical risk",
"silver outperformance framing vs gold (industrial/supply deficit)",
"rate/monetary-policy headline sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"bearish price-action framings (decline/consolidation) occurring alongside the bullish narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 51,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 47,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Reversal/whipsaw risk is elevated in the next 24h because opposing directional framings (rise vs decline) are both being refreshed by recent updates.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"opposing narratives refreshed inside the last 24h",
"macro-policy headlines dominating metals discourse",
"high cross-domain linkage (geopolitics + Fed + risk) increasing sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 62,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SILVER-001",
"B-SILVER-002",
"B-SILVER-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 2,
"B": 18,
"C": 5,
"D": 200,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 14,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 28,
"stale_24_72h_est": 6,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 0,
"notes": "Estimated from trend-level newest timestamps and evidence recency proxies; per-record timestamp histogram not available in this baton."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "contradiction_elevated",
"severity": "high",
"note": "Material opposing directional framings (rise vs decline/consolidation) are simultaneously present and recently refreshed."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "high",
"note": "Macro-policy/geopolitical headline linkage is strong, increasing intraday swing risk."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "authority_skew_low",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Breadth is high but a large share of evidence volume sits in lower authority tiers; confirmation exists but is not dominant."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 OR contradiction_ratio stays > 0.40."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal monitoring if bearish buckets (<= -20) persist for 2+ hours with rising conviction (>60) OR if bullish momentum collapses (drop >30 points within 4h)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Treat as volatility regime if directional_score_signed changes by >= 25 points within 2 hours with contradiction_ratio >= 0.45."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only consider long-bias watch if directional_score_signed sustains >= +30 for 3+ hours AND contradiction_ratio falls below 0.35."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only consider short-bias watch if directional_score_signed sustains <= -30 for 3+ hours AND supporting evidence count improves (fresh_evidence_count >= 3 per hour)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"silver"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -25,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -25,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 15,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'silver' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"Silver-relevant admitted trend set dominated by mixed price-direction framings (rise/outperformance vs decline/consolidation), producing high reversal risk.",
"Per-record physics and per-record timestamp histograms were not provided in the baton; timeseries values are conservative, derived from admitted trend freshness/recency proxies and do not claim exact per-hour article counts.",
"No late-breaking invalidation kill-switch fired: opposing signals are present, but no single hard invalidator with clear dominance was supplied."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}