Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: (unavailable)
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-22 22:15 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SILVER-001 Silver likely to trade choppy/rangebound over next 6h; bullish safe‑haven/industrial narratives are being countered by rate‑policy and headline swings. 58 mixed stable 6h false 74
silver B-SILVER-002 Net 24h bias modestly upward but fragile: if USD/real‑rate expectations firm, silver's upside attempt is likely to stall or retrace. 52 up fading 24h false 74
silver B-SILVER-003 Reversal/whipsaw risk elevated in the next 24h because opposing directional framings (rise vs decline) are both being refreshed. 70 mixed accelerating 24h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260422-silver-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T22:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver is more likely to trade choppy/rangebound than to sustain a clean breakout over the next 6h, as bullish safe-haven/industrial narratives are being actively countered by rate-policy and headline-driven swings.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand",
 "industrial demand / supply-deficit framing supporting upside bias",
 "policy/real-rates sensitivity creating near-term headwinds"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "silver-decline / consolidation narratives in the same 24h window"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Net 24h bias is modestly upward, but fragile: if USD/real-rate expectations firm, silver\u2019s upside attempt is likely to stall or retrace.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "safe-haven bid from geopolitical risk",
 "silver outperformance framing vs gold (industrial/supply deficit)",
 "rate/monetary-policy headline sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "bearish price-action framings (decline/consolidation) occurring alongside the bullish narratives"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 51,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 47,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Reversal/whipsaw risk is elevated in the next 24h because opposing directional framings (rise vs decline) are both being refreshed by recent updates.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "opposing narratives refreshed inside the last 24h",
 "macro-policy headlines dominating metals discourse",
 "high cross-domain linkage (geopolitics + Fed + risk) increasing sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 62,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SILVER-001",
 "B-SILVER-002",
 "B-SILVER-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 2,
 "B": 18,
 "C": 5,
 "D": 200,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 14,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 28,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 6,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 0,
 "notes": "Estimated from trend-level newest timestamps and evidence recency proxies; per-record timestamp histogram not available in this baton."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "contradiction_elevated",
 "severity": "high",
 "note": "Material opposing directional framings (rise vs decline/consolidation) are simultaneously present and recently refreshed."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "high",
 "note": "Macro-policy/geopolitical headline linkage is strong, increasing intraday swing risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "authority_skew_low",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Breadth is high but a large share of evidence volume sits in lower authority tiers; confirmation exists but is not dominant."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional_score_signed remains between -20 and +20 OR contradiction_ratio stays > 0.40."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal monitoring if bearish buckets (<= -20) persist for 2+ hours with rising conviction (>60) OR if bullish momentum collapses (drop >30 points within 4h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Treat as volatility regime if directional_score_signed changes by >= 25 points within 2 hours with contradiction_ratio >= 0.45."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only consider long-bias watch if directional_score_signed sustains >= +30 for 3+ hours AND contradiction_ratio falls below 0.35."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only consider short-bias watch if directional_score_signed sustains <= -30 for 3+ hours AND supporting evidence count improves (fresh_evidence_count >= 3 per hour)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "silver"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -25,
 "velocity_score": -20,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": -20,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -25,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 15,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 5,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to 'silver' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "Silver-relevant admitted trend set dominated by mixed price-direction framings (rise/outperformance vs decline/consolidation), producing high reversal risk.",
 "Per-record physics and per-record timestamp histograms were not provided in the baton; timeseries values are conservative, derived from admitted trend freshness/recency proxies and do not claim exact per-hour article counts.",
 "No late-breaking invalidation kill-switch fired: opposing signals are present, but no single hard invalidator with clear dominance was supplied."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}