Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_core_fundamentals
  • generated_at: 2026-04-22T06:35:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Elevated Middle East / shipping-route disruption risk is maintaining an energy risk-premium that is net-supportive for LNG-linked natural gas pricing in the next 24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-002 EU energy-security actions (including joint procurement / storage-security framing) are a near-term supportive demand signal for LNG imports, mildly bullish for gas over 6–24h. 58 up stable 6h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-003 Incremental LNG supply headlines (e.g., new export flows / infrastructure starting up) and gas-price decoupling / renewables policy signals are a near-term cap on upside, creating two-sided risk. 48 down fading 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-NG-20260422-0635Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T06:35:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Elevated Middle East / shipping-route disruption risk is maintaining an energy risk-premium that is net-supportive for LNG-linked natural gas pricing in the next 24h.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Energy geopolitics: Strait of Hormuz / blockade and seizure narratives", "Supply-chain risk to seaborne energy flows (LNG shipping sensitivity)", "Broad, fresh media recurrence across multiple domains (though many lower-tier repeats)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "EU energy-security actions (including joint procurement / storage-security framing) are a near-term supportive demand signal for LNG imports, mildly bullish for gas over 6\u201324h.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Regulatory/policy energy security posture", "Risk-off procurement behaviour during price-surge narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Incremental LNG supply headlines (e.g., new export flows / infrastructure starting up) and gas-price decoupling / renewables policy signals are a near-term cap on upside, creating two-sided risk.", "probability_pct": 48, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "LNG export/infrastructure start-up narrative (supply growth)", "Policy interventions to reduce gas price pass-through (single-source VIP lane)", "Renewables expansion narratives (single-source VIP lane)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 70, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-002", "B-NG-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 22, "B": 6, "C": 0, "D": 420, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 14, "fresh_6_24h": 46, "fresh_24_72h": 120, "stale_gt_72h": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity_core_fundamentals", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "details": "Current admitted corpus is heavily geopolitics/shipping-led; limited direct natural-gas fundamentals (US storage, weather-driven demand, production outages) are present in the admitted set, increasing fragility." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "details": "Multiple related geopolitical threads (blockade/seizure/ceasefire complications) can flip quickly without clear quantitative linkage to Henry Hub pricing." }, { "flag": "counterevidence_present_supply_policy", "market": "natural_gas", "severity": "medium", "details": "Countervailing items exist (LNG supply start-up; policy decoupling/renewables signals), limiting conviction despite broadly bullish risk-premium narratives." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source updates continue to reinforce disruption/procurement narratives without comparable fresh supply-relief counterevidence." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) credible counter-signal emerges indicating de-escalation / restored shipping flow expectations or a concrete supply-restoration headline." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "low", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction increases via simultaneous escalation and supply-expansion headlines within the same 6h window." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence volume drops and the remaining support is primarily >24\u201372h background narratives (stale_context_overhang risk)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 47, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 47, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 47, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 22, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Authority vs mass split: broad directional mass is present, but much of the corpus is geopolitics-led and not directly tied to US natural gas fundamentals; authority confirmation is moderate (Reuters anchors exist) while counterevidence is non-trivial (LNG supply/policy items).", "No explicit opposing fresh (<=2h) multi-record invalidator detected in the admitted set; kill-switch not triggered." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }