Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-22 07:02 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Residual geopolitical-risk narrative could support intermittent safe-haven demand for gold over the next 6h–24h, but follow-through is limited by weak freshness of corroborating evidence in the current corpus. 56 up fading 24h false 78
gold B-gold-002 In absence of fresh, gold-specific macro drivers (real rates/USD/CB flows/ETF flows) within the last 24h of admitted evidence, gold is more likely to trade rangebound/mixed than trend strongly in either direction. 60 mixed stable 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260422T070236Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T07:02:36Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-gold-001", "market": "gold", "claim": "Residual geopolitical-risk narrative could support intermittent safe-haven demand for gold over the next 6h\u201324h, but follow-through is limited by weak freshness of corroborating evidence in the current corpus.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "data_sparsity_last_24h", "stale_context_overhang" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-gold-002", "market": "gold", "claim": "In absence of fresh, gold-specific macro drivers (real rates/USD/CB flows/ETF flows) within the last 24h of admitted evidence, gold is more likely to trade rangebound/mixed than trend strongly in either direction.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "real_rates", "usd_strength", "central_bank_flows", "etf_investment_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [ "any_new_high-trust_geopolitical_escalation" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 42, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-gold-001", "B-gold-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 32, "B": 4, "C": 0, "D": 57, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_signals_0_6h": 1, "fresh_signals_6_24h": 0, "stale_signals_24_72h": 0, "stale_signals_gt_72h": 4 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "note": "Most admitted supporting narratives are older than 30 days versus the requested 30d window; stale suppression applied." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity_last_24h", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "note": "Very limited gold-relevant evidence within the last 24h; conviction capped and fragility elevated." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "gold", "severity": "medium", "note": "If fresh macro prints (USD/real rates) arrive, they can quickly dominate the current low-freshness geopolitical residue." }, { "flag": "authority_gap_for_gold_specific_direction", "market": "gold", "severity": "medium", "note": "Authority-tier coverage exists on geopolitics, but gold-direction confirmation is not strongly evidenced in the admitted set." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "action_label": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Remain neutral while freshness_confidence=low and conviction_score_0_100 < 55." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if fresh (<=6h) geopolitical escalation plus broader corroboration (>=2 independent records) emerges." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "low", "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Consider long-bias watch only if fresh evidence on geopolitical risk is corroborated AND no offsetting USD/real-rate tightening signals appear in the same 6h window." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-trust USD-strength/real-rates-up catalyst appears (<=2h) and contradicts any safe-haven bid narrative, raise reversal watch." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, 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0, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 8, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 2, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Gold target resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='gold'.", "Directional conviction suppressed due to limited gold-specific fresh evidence and substantial staleness (>30d) of most admitted narratives.", "State_change set to 'unchanged' because no reliable prior state memory was provided in inputs." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }