Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_present (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-22T22:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-01 Near-term coffee futures price pressure is biased upward as supply-side risk narratives (logistics/shipping disruption, production cost/labour constraints, climate/disease risks) remain the dominant fresh driver-set. 62 up accelerating 24h false 52
coffee B-coffee-02 A countervailing (bearish) near-term channel exists: incremental export availability / market-access improvements may ease supply tightness enough to cap rallies. 38 down stable 24h false 52
coffee B-coffee-03 Net narrative contradiction is present but not yet strong enough to invalidate the dominant supply-risk-driven upside bias; risk is best framed as 'bullish but fragile'. 58 mixed stable 6h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures price pressure is biased upward as supply-side risk narratives (logistics/shipping disruption, production cost/labour constraints, climate/disease risks) remain the dominant fresh driver-set.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight (logistics disruption / delays)",
 "origin_supply (constraints / instability)",
 "labour_costs (shortage / enforcement / wage pressure)",
 "crop_conditions_disease (plant health / disease risk)",
 "weather_disruptions (climate-linked supply risk framing)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh pro-supply/export narrative (e.g., export boost / improved market access) can dampen upside or flip short-term direction."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "A countervailing (bearish) near-term channel exists: incremental export availability / market-access improvements may ease supply tightness enough to cap rallies.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply (export volume / access improvement)",
 "pricing (downstream price reduction narratives)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any renewed shipping disruption, cost shocks, or crop/disease headlines re-tighten the physical balance narrative quickly."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Net narrative contradiction is present but not yet strong enough to invalidate the dominant supply-risk-driven upside bias; risk is best framed as 'bullish but fragile'.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "mixed: supply-risk headlines vs pro-supply/export items"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Multiple independent fresh (<=2h) bearish supply/demand shocks would trigger a kill-switch style re-rating."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-01",
 "B-coffee-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 88,
 "B": 8,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 167,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 6,
 "stale_24_72h_signal_count": 3,
 "stale_gt_72h_signal_count": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_present",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Fresh pro-supply/export accessibility signals coexist with fresh supply-risk signals; conviction reduced and reversal risk elevated to medium."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several influential themes have oldest anchors around 2026-04-13 to 2026-04-16; stale suppression applied so only fresh confirmations drive momentum."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_shape_spike_and_fade_mix",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Some themes exhibit spike-and-fade temporal profiles; avoid over-weighting a single burst without follow-through."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias only while fresh (<=24h) supply-risk signals remain dominant and no multi-source fresh counter-signal emerges."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if pro-supply/export signals accelerate (multiple independent items within 6h) or contradiction ratio rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Expect higher volatility if logistics/shipping constraints and tariff/legal frictions continue to refresh inside 0–6h windows."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": -13,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 1,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 11,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 17,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -2,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 17,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 3,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Price-direction inference derived from supply/demand/flow constraints vs pro-supply signals (no live price feed used).",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
 "source_tier_counts are approximate signal-set sums across admitted items (not de-duplicated unique sources)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}