Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF_counterevidence_supply_relief
- generated_at: 2026-04-22T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B1_coffee_supply_risk_upbias |
Coffee futures have an upward price bias as supply-side risk narratives (weather/climate anomalies, crop disease risk, labour constraints, and logistics frictions) dominate over the 24h–30d context window. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
56 |
| coffee |
B2_coffee_supply_relief_downbias |
Near-term downside risk exists if supply-relief/harvest-volume narratives broaden (e.g., retail/market signals implying easing input coffee costs). |
38 |
down |
stable |
6h |
false |
56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1_coffee_supply_risk_upbias",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures have an upward price bias as supply-side risk narratives (weather/climate anomalies, crop disease risk, labour constraints, and logistics frictions) dominate over the 24h\u201330d context window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease",
"origin_supply",
"labour_costs",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2_coffee_supply_relief_downbias"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2_coffee_supply_relief_downbias",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term downside risk exists if supply-relief/harvest-volume narratives broaden (e.g., retail/market signals implying easing input coffee costs).",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1_coffee_supply_risk_upbias"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1_coffee_supply_risk_upbias",
"B2_coffee_supply_relief_downbias"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 35,
"B": 6,
"C": 3,
"D": 210,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 1,
"fresh_6_24h": 2,
"fresh_24_72h": 6,
"stale_gt_72h": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF_counterevidence_supply_relief",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"description": "A recent supply-relief/price-reduction narrative is present and acts as genuine counter-evidence to the broader supply-risk bullish thesis; increases whipsaw/reversal probability if it gains additional independent confirmations."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF_cross_driver_contradiction",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Demand-expansion narratives and supply-risk narratives point to higher prices, but a competing near-term easing signal creates mixed short-horizon pressure."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF_stale_context_overhang",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "low",
"description": "Parts of the supply-risk narrative appear medium-term/persistent (multi-day) rather than newly accelerating; conviction should remain sensitive to fresh confirmations."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=24h) supply-risk confirmations arrive (weather/crop disease/logistics/labour) without a matching rise in supply-relief counter-signals."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=24h) supply-relief / harvest-volume / demand-softening signals cluster, pushing the net directional score toward neutral."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises (more mixed headlines across supply vs demand) while fresh evidence density remains high."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence flow drops materially (data sparsity) and the market signal becomes predominantly background/persistent without new catalysts."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": -30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 30,
"acceleration_score": 30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -50,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -30,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 35,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: coffee.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; counter-evidence inferred from admitted risk-anomaly narratives.",
"Timeseries buckets are conservative and event-sparse due to limited per-record timestamp availability in the gated payload (used visible recency proxies and sample timestamps only).",
"Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change set to 'unchanged' by unknown-prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}