Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Silver is experiencing near-term downside pressure driven by rates/USD-sensitive macro headlines (policy/real-rates framing) and risk-off messaging, outweighing supportive narratives in the last 24h window. 58 down accelerating 6h false 62
silver B-SI-002 ETF/vehicle flow narratives and positioning support remain present and can stabilise silver on dips, limiting follow-through on bearish catalysts if USD/real-rates pressure eases. 52 flat stable 24h false 62
silver B-SI-003 Physical-demand messaging (e.g., China import surge then cooling) is mixed and increases uncertainty; if cooling persists, it becomes a downside amplifier. 50 mixed fading 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_silver_20260421T230000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver is experiencing near-term downside pressure driven by rates/USD-sensitive macro headlines (policy/real-rates framing) and risk-off messaging, outweighing supportive narratives in the last 24h window.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "ETF/vehicle flow narratives and positioning support remain present and can stabilise silver on dips, limiting follow-through on bearish catalysts if USD/real-rates pressure eases.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "investment_flows",
 "usd_strength",
 "monetary_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Physical-demand messaging (e.g., China import surge then cooling) is mixed and increases uncertainty; if cooling persists, it becomes a downside amplifier.",
 "probability_pct": 50,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "investment_flows",
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 63,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002",
 "B-SI-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 13,
 "B": 13,
 "C": 10,
 "D": 356,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "window_basis": "admitted_signal_recency_proxies",
 "fresh_0_24h_est": "medium_high",
 "stale_24_72h_est": "medium",
 "stale_72h_plus_est": "low"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "silver",
 "rationale": "Co-existing bearish catalyst headlines and supportive flow/stability narratives in the same 24h window."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradictory_pressure",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "silver",
 "rationale": "Meaningful bullish support narratives present alongside fresh bearish price-pressure narratives; net state remains near threshold."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "silver",
 "rationale": "Broad coverage includes a high low-tier share; authority confirmation exists but breadth is partly lower-tier."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains within neutral band (|score| < 20) with persistent mixed drivers."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Signed directional score crosses and holds beyond +/-20 for 2+ hourly buckets with reduced contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh headline bursts (<=6h) increase bearish/bullish pressure simultaneously, raising fragility > 70."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 9,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": -25,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": -32,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": -40,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": -45,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": -38,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": -30,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": -22,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": -16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 10,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -45,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = 'silver'.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided; counterevidence was inferred from co-existing bullish vs bearish admitted signals.",
 "Timeseries bucket values are conservative approximations based on admitted-signal recency/peak-bucket metadata (full per-record timestamp distribution not provided to 6B).",
 "Prior market state not provided to workflow 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}