Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-001 |
Silver is experiencing near-term downside pressure driven by rates/USD-sensitive macro headlines (policy/real-rates framing) and risk-off messaging, outweighing supportive narratives in the last 24h window. |
58 |
down |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
| silver |
B-SI-002 |
ETF/vehicle flow narratives and positioning support remain present and can stabilise silver on dips, limiting follow-through on bearish catalysts if USD/real-rates pressure eases. |
52 |
flat |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| silver |
B-SI-003 |
Physical-demand messaging (e.g., China import surge then cooling) is mixed and increases uncertainty; if cooling persists, it becomes a downside amplifier. |
50 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_silver_20260421T230000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver is experiencing near-term downside pressure driven by rates/USD-sensitive macro headlines (policy/real-rates framing) and risk-off messaging, outweighing supportive narratives in the last 24h window.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "ETF/vehicle flow narratives and positioning support remain present and can stabilise silver on dips, limiting follow-through on bearish catalysts if USD/real-rates pressure eases.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows",
"usd_strength",
"monetary_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Physical-demand messaging (e.g., China import surge then cooling) is mixed and increases uncertainty; if cooling persists, it becomes a downside amplifier.",
"probability_pct": 50,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"investment_flows",
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 63,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002",
"B-SI-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 13,
"B": 13,
"C": 10,
"D": 356,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"window_basis": "admitted_signal_recency_proxies",
"fresh_0_24h_est": "medium_high",
"stale_24_72h_est": "medium",
"stale_72h_plus_est": "low"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "silver",
"rationale": "Co-existing bearish catalyst headlines and supportive flow/stability narratives in the same 24h window."
},
{
"flag": "contradictory_pressure",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "silver",
"rationale": "Meaningful bullish support narratives present alongside fresh bearish price-pressure narratives; net state remains near threshold."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"market": "silver",
"rationale": "Broad coverage includes a high low-tier share; authority confirmation exists but breadth is partly lower-tier."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains within neutral band (|score| < 20) with persistent mixed drivers."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Signed directional score crosses and holds beyond +/-20 for 2+ hourly buckets with reduced contradiction."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh headline bursts (<=6h) increase bearish/bullish pressure simultaneously, raising fragility > 70."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": -25,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": -32,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": -40,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": -45,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": -38,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": -30,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": -22,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": -16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 10,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -45,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = 'silver'.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; counterevidence was inferred from co-existing bullish vs bearish admitted signals.",
"Timeseries bucket values are conservative approximations based on admitted-signal recency/peak-bucket metadata (full per-record timestamp distribution not provided to 6B).",
"Prior market state not provided to workflow 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}