• subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21 06:15 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SILVER-001 Over the next 6–24 hours, silver futures are likely to remain rangebound-to-slightly higher as safe-haven and easing/softer-USD narratives offset macro headwinds. 56 mixed stable 24h false 66
silver B-SILVER-002 Bearish macro pressure remains a credible near-term drag on silver (rates/real-rates/dollar-strength framing), limiting follow-through on upside impulses. 49 down stable 6h false 66
silver B-SILVER-003 Intraday volatility risk is elevated because the newest evidence set contains both bullish (safe-haven / softer USD) and bearish (macro pressure / decline) framings with similar freshness. 62 mixed accelerating 6h false 66
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_2026-04-21T06:15:00Z_silver_6B",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T06:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6\u201324 hours, silver futures are likely to remain rangebound-to-slightly higher as safe-haven and easing/softer-USD narratives offset macro headwinds.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Safe-haven bid from geopolitical risk headlines (Iran-related risk framing)",
 "Fed cut-bets / weaker USD narrative appearing in the silver discourse",
 "Relative-strength framing: \u201csilver outperforms gold\u201d"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Competing narrative cluster: \u201cprecious metals decline\u201d / \u201csilver price decline\u201d under macro pressure"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Bearish macro pressure remains a credible near-term drag on silver (rates/real-rates/dollar-strength framing), limiting follow-through on upside impulses.",
 "probability_pct": 49,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Macro-pressure narratives tied to central-bank policy and USD strength",
 "Multiple fresh \u2018decline\u2019 headlines explicitly naming silver / precious metals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Rate-cut / weaker-USD supportive narrative for silver",
 "Stagflation/geopolitical-risk supportive narrative for gold & silver"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 53,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Intraday volatility risk is elevated because the newest evidence set contains both bullish (safe-haven / softer USD) and bearish (macro pressure / decline) framings with similar freshness.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "High overlap of fresh bullish and bearish signals within the same recency window",
 "Low authority share in the broader corpus increases narrative whipsaw risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 63,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SILVER-001",
 "B-SILVER-002",
 "B-SILVER-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 6,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 31,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h": 3,
 "fresh_24_72h": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "contradiction_elevated",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Fresh bullish and bearish framings are both present (safe-haven/softer-USD vs macro-pressure/decline clusters)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Multiple high-heat narratives point in opposite directions; conviction capped despite strong freshness."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Authority confirmation exists but the broader evidence mix is skewed toward lower-tier sources, increasing fragility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain until directional_score_signed clears +/-20 OR contradiction_ratio falls below ~0.45 with confirming fresh evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh evidence count rises while directional_score_signed remains near 0 (rangebound but noisy)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if the next 1\u20132 hourly buckets flip sign and magnitude increases (|score| rising) alongside falling contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Consider only if bullish pressure persists for 3+ buckets AND macro-pressure/decline narratives fade (lower bearish pressure + contradiction drop)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Consider only if decline/macro-pressure narratives intensify with fresh confirmation and directional_score_signed trends downward for 3+ buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -11,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -15,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: silver only.",
 "No explicit per-record contradiction feed supplied; contradiction handled as cross-narrative opposition across admitted trends/risk anomalies.",
 "Signal timeseries is a conservative proxy shaped from available trend temporal proxies (freshness/heat/shape) rather than a full per-record timestamp histogram.",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}