- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-21 06:15 UTC
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SILVER-001 |
Over the next 6–24 hours, silver futures are likely to remain rangebound-to-slightly higher as safe-haven and easing/softer-USD narratives offset macro headwinds. |
56 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
66 |
| silver |
B-SILVER-002 |
Bearish macro pressure remains a credible near-term drag on silver (rates/real-rates/dollar-strength framing), limiting follow-through on upside impulses. |
49 |
down |
stable |
6h |
false |
66 |
| silver |
B-SILVER-003 |
Intraday volatility risk is elevated because the newest evidence set contains both bullish (safe-haven / softer USD) and bearish (macro pressure / decline) framings with similar freshness. |
62 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
66 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_2026-04-21T06:15:00Z_silver_6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T06:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6\u201324 hours, silver futures are likely to remain rangebound-to-slightly higher as safe-haven and easing/softer-USD narratives offset macro headwinds.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Safe-haven bid from geopolitical risk headlines (Iran-related risk framing)",
"Fed cut-bets / weaker USD narrative appearing in the silver discourse",
"Relative-strength framing: \u201csilver outperforms gold\u201d"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Competing narrative cluster: \u201cprecious metals decline\u201d / \u201csilver price decline\u201d under macro pressure"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Bearish macro pressure remains a credible near-term drag on silver (rates/real-rates/dollar-strength framing), limiting follow-through on upside impulses.",
"probability_pct": 49,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Macro-pressure narratives tied to central-bank policy and USD strength",
"Multiple fresh \u2018decline\u2019 headlines explicitly naming silver / precious metals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Rate-cut / weaker-USD supportive narrative for silver",
"Stagflation/geopolitical-risk supportive narrative for gold & silver"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 53,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Intraday volatility risk is elevated because the newest evidence set contains both bullish (safe-haven / softer USD) and bearish (macro pressure / decline) framings with similar freshness.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"High overlap of fresh bullish and bearish signals within the same recency window",
"Low authority share in the broader corpus increases narrative whipsaw risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 63,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SILVER-001",
"B-SILVER-002",
"B-SILVER-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 6,
"B": 2,
"C": 1,
"D": 31,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 6,
"fresh_6_24h": 3,
"fresh_24_72h": 2,
"stale_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "contradiction_elevated",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Fresh bullish and bearish framings are both present (safe-haven/softer-USD vs macro-pressure/decline clusters)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple high-heat narratives point in opposite directions; conviction capped despite strong freshness."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Authority confirmation exists but the broader evidence mix is skewed toward lower-tier sources, increasing fragility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain until directional_score_signed clears +/-20 OR contradiction_ratio falls below ~0.45 with confirming fresh evidence."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh evidence count rises while directional_score_signed remains near 0 (rangebound but noisy)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if the next 1\u20132 hourly buckets flip sign and magnitude increases (|score| rising) alongside falling contradiction."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Consider only if bullish pressure persists for 3+ buckets AND macro-pressure/decline narratives fade (lower bearish pressure + contradiction drop)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Consider only if decline/macro-pressure narratives intensify with fresh confirmation and directional_score_signed trends downward for 3+ buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.61,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -15,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: silver only.",
"No explicit per-record contradiction feed supplied; contradiction handled as cross-narrative opposition across admitted trends/risk anomalies.",
"Signal timeseries is a conservative proxy shaped from available trend temporal proxies (freshness/heat/shape) rather than a full per-record timestamp histogram.",
"Prior state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}