Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: GOLD
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (severity: high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:59:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-gold-001 | Near-term gold futures direction is neutral/mixed due to lack of fresh, market-direct catalysts in the admitted signal set. | 58 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 74 |
| gold | B-gold-002 | Gold-specific market-structure/trade-flow narratives (e.g., regional trade disruption/traceability themes) are present but stale, limiting actionable directional conviction. | 52 | flat | fading | 24h | false | 74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
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"contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 15, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-gold-002", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold-specific market-structure/trade-flow narratives (e.g., regional trade disruption/traceability themes) are present but stale, limiting actionable directional conviction.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "physical_gold_demand", "etf_investment_flows" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 22, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-gold-001", "B-gold-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 1, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 1, "U": 1 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "fresh_24_72h": 0, "fresh_gt_72h": 3 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "details": "Gold-mapped admitted signals are thin and largely single-source; no fresh corroboration inside the last 72h." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "details": "Most gold-relevant narratives in the admitted set are >72h old, triggering stale suppression and lowering momentum/conviction." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Until >=3 independent gold-mapped signals appear within the 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"fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Gold-mapped evidence primarily from VIP outliers (GLD/gold-market items) dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; treated as >72h stale with strong downweight.", "Geopolitical conflict trends were not force-mapped to gold (insufficient direct gold linkage); counted as unmapped for the single-market gold scope.", "Prior state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change defaulted to 'unchanged'." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }