Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21 06:15 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-01 Copper futures bias tilts upward over the next 6 hours as electrification/grid-build narratives and supply/security framing remain dominant in the freshest window. 62 up accelerating 6h false 44
copper B-copper-02 Copper futures bias remains modestly upward over 24 hours, but with elevated headline-risk from trade-policy and regulatory actions that can cause whipsaws. 59 up stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260421T061500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T06:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-01",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures bias tilts upward over the next 6 hours as electrification/grid-build narratives and supply/security framing remain dominant in the freshest window.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Electrification/grid-modernisation demand framing (energy transition, EV charging, grid upgrades)",
 "Supply-chain/security and policy signalling increasing focus on critical minerals",
 "Scattered supply/regulatory disruption headlines tied to major copper supply nodes (e.g., Chile/Codelco-linked regulatory risk)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Trade-policy shock risk (tariffs/export controls) creating demand uncertainty",
 "Capex sensitivity to higher power/infrastructure costs (singleton negative research signal)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-02",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures bias remains modestly upward over 24 hours, but with elevated headline-risk from trade-policy and regulatory actions that can cause whipsaws.",
 "probability_pct": 59,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Broad, multi-source reinforcement of electrification/energy-transition copper intensity",
 "Recurrent supply-security framing (critical minerals, supply-chain policy)",
 "Incremental project/supply newsflow (singletons) adding to upside narrative density"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Macro-growth/demand uncertainty via trade-policy tightening",
 "Narrative concentration in lower-tier sources (authority-light breadth)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-01",
 "B-copper-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 10,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 36,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.42,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.38,
 "stale_gt_24h_share_0_1": 0.2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "trade_policy_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "why": "Trade-policy/tariff/export-control narratives are active and can abruptly flip demand expectations."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_light_breadth",
 "severity": "medium",
 "why": "Directional mass is broad, but a high share of reinforcement appears from lower-tier domains (increasing narrative fragility)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "cross_domain_extrapolation_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "why": "Some demand drivers are inferred from broader electrification/grid narratives rather than copper-only hard data prints."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) demand/energy-transition and supply-security signals remain dominant and no fresh opposing macro/trade-policy shock enters the corpus."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) opposing macro/trade-policy headline cluster appears across 2+ independent sources, raising contradiction ratio materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If policy/regulatory items (tariffs, permitting, safety restrictions) cluster tightly in time, even without clear net direction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to copper; single-market synthesis enforced.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects supplied; contradiction_ratio is conservatively non-zero to reflect macro/policy two-sided risk.",
 "Per-signal v2 physics fields not present in payload; momentum/recency inferred from provided temporal_profile and evidence_recency_proxy summaries."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}