Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: trade_policy_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-21 06:15 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-01 |
Copper futures bias tilts upward over the next 6 hours as electrification/grid-build narratives and supply/security framing remain dominant in the freshest window. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B-copper-02 |
Copper futures bias remains modestly upward over 24 hours, but with elevated headline-risk from trade-policy and regulatory actions that can cause whipsaws. |
59 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260421T061500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T06:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-01",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures bias tilts upward over the next 6 hours as electrification/grid-build narratives and supply/security framing remain dominant in the freshest window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Electrification/grid-modernisation demand framing (energy transition, EV charging, grid upgrades)",
"Supply-chain/security and policy signalling increasing focus on critical minerals",
"Scattered supply/regulatory disruption headlines tied to major copper supply nodes (e.g., Chile/Codelco-linked regulatory risk)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Trade-policy shock risk (tariffs/export controls) creating demand uncertainty",
"Capex sensitivity to higher power/infrastructure costs (singleton negative research signal)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-02",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures bias remains modestly upward over 24 hours, but with elevated headline-risk from trade-policy and regulatory actions that can cause whipsaws.",
"probability_pct": 59,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Broad, multi-source reinforcement of electrification/energy-transition copper intensity",
"Recurrent supply-security framing (critical minerals, supply-chain policy)",
"Incremental project/supply newsflow (singletons) adding to upside narrative density"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro-growth/demand uncertainty via trade-policy tightening",
"Narrative concentration in lower-tier sources (authority-light breadth)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-01",
"B-copper-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 10,
"B": 2,
"C": 2,
"D": 36,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.42,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.38,
"stale_gt_24h_share_0_1": 0.2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "trade_policy_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"why": "Trade-policy/tariff/export-control narratives are active and can abruptly flip demand expectations."
},
{
"flag": "authority_light_breadth",
"severity": "medium",
"why": "Directional mass is broad, but a high share of reinforcement appears from lower-tier domains (increasing narrative fragility)."
},
{
"flag": "cross_domain_extrapolation_risk",
"severity": "low",
"why": "Some demand drivers are inferred from broader electrification/grid narratives rather than copper-only hard data prints."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) demand/energy-transition and supply-security signals remain dominant and no fresh opposing macro/trade-policy shock enters the corpus."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) opposing macro/trade-policy headline cluster appears across 2+ independent sources, raising contradiction ratio materially."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If policy/regulatory items (tariffs, permitting, safety restrictions) cluster tightly in time, even without clear net direction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to copper; single-market synthesis enforced.",
"No explicit contradiction objects supplied; contradiction_ratio is conservatively non-zero to reflect macro/policy two-sided risk.",
"Per-signal v2 physics fields not present in payload; momentum/recency inferred from provided temporal_profile and evidence_recency_proxy summaries."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}