Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: counterpressure_supply_expansion
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-01 Copper futures retain an upward bias over the next 6–24h as energy-transition/infrastructure demand narratives remain dominant and recent technical-tone signals skew supportive. 62 up accelerating 24h false 52
copper B-copper-02 Upside conviction is limited by counter-pressure (supply expansion + China demand-softness proxies), keeping reversal risk elevated versus a clean trend. 58 mixed stable 24h false 52
copper B-copper-03 Supply-chain security and policy-regulatory framing remains a supportive background (risk premium) rather than a near-term decisive upside catalyst unless escalation/implementation surprises emerge. 55 up fading 24h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260421T230000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-01",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures retain an upward bias over the next 6\u201324h as energy-transition/infrastructure demand narratives remain dominant and recent technical-tone signals skew supportive.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Energy-transition demand / EV charging buildout narrative",
 "Infrastructure investment / electrification framing",
 "Technical-pattern narrative support (bullish-flag framing)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "China industrial-activity softness proxies (e.g., steel output decline) may pressure near-term demand expectations",
 "Incremental mine capacity / supply additions can cap upside"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-02",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Upside conviction is limited by a meaningful counter-pressure set (supply expansion headlines + China demand-softness proxies), keeping reversal risk elevated versus a clean trend.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Mine capacity expansion / supply response risk",
 "China macro/industrial softness proxies",
 "Narrative cross-currents (policy + demand + supply simultaneously active)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Broad, fresh pro-demand/pro-transition flow remains more numerous than explicit bearish flow"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-03",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-chain security and policy-regulatory framing remains a supportive background (risk premium) rather than a near-term decisive upside catalyst unless escalation/implementation surprises emerge.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply-chain security / industrial security regulation framing",
 "Critical-minerals geopolitics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Absent fresh escalation signals, policy themes can persist without immediate price follow-through"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-01",
 "B-copper-02",
 "B-copper-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 39,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 251,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": "medium",
 "fresh_6_24h_est": "high",
 "stale_24_72h_est": "medium",
 "stale_gt72h_est": "medium"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "counterpressure_supply_expansion",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Supply-addition / capacity-expansion narratives present alongside bullish demand framing; can cap upside and raise reversal sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "china_demand_softness_proxy",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "China industrial-activity softness proxies (e.g., steel production decline) act as a near-term counterweight to transition/infrastructure demand framing."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of evidence originates from lower-tier sources; increases fragility/whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_potential",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Multiple arenas (policy, demand, supply, technical framing) active concurrently; higher chance of fast regime shifts on marginal updates."
 },
 {
 "flag": "timeseries_sparsity_proxy",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Per-record timestamp distribution was not provided to 6B; timeseries buckets are conservative, shape-based approximations."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive flow remains dominant and no new high-quality opposing supply/demand shock appears within the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If China demand-softness proxies intensify OR supply-expansion headlines cluster with fresh confirmation, pushing net sentiment back toward neutral."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (mixed signals in same 6h window) despite continued high message volume."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope: single-market copper (explicit target_market_code).",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided; counterevidence is inferred from mixed driver-types (supply expansion + demand-softness proxies).",
 "Timeseries buckets are conservative shape-based approximations due to lack of per-record timestamp distribution in the 6B input payload."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}