Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:59:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term coffee futures price pressure is biased upward due to recurring supply-side risk narratives (weather/crop health, labour tightness, input-cost and logistics friction). 62 up stable 24h false 62
coffee B-coffee-002 Demand-side expansion signals (retail chain growth / specialty and RTD category growth) provide supportive background demand, but are less decisive for 6h horizon than supply/logistics shocks. 56 up fading 6h false 62
coffee B-coffee-003 A fresh, low-authority cluster suggests retail coffee price reductions linked to improved harvest volume, which could translate into short-lived downside pressure on coffee futures if corroborated. 38 down accelerating 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260421T235900Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T23:59:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures (KC)", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term coffee futures price pressure is biased upward due to recurring supply-side risk narratives (weather/crop health, labour tightness, input-cost and logistics friction).", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "origin_supply", "weather_disruptions", "crop_conditions_disease", "labour_costs", "shipping_freight" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Demand-side expansion signals (retail chain growth / specialty and RTD category growth) provide supportive background demand, but are less decisive for 6h horizon than supply/logistics shocks.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "consumption_trends" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-003", "market": "coffee", "claim": "A fresh, low-authority cluster suggests retail coffee price reductions linked to improved harvest volume, which could translate into short-lived downside pressure on coffee futures if corroborated.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-001", "B-coffee-002", "B-coffee-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 34, "B": 6, "C": 3, "D": 220, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 2, "fresh_6_24h": 6, "stale_24_72h": 10, "stale_over_72h": 22 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A material share of supporting evidence clusters are older than 72h; conviction is capped and momentum marked weakening despite some fresh reinforcement." }, { "flag": "counter_signal_present", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Fresh downside-leaning cluster (retail price reductions tied to harvest volume) increases reversal risk; currently low authority and not yet broad." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "coffee", "severity": "low", "detail": "Supply-risk narratives remain dominant, but short-horizon signals could swing if harvest/stock improvement stories broaden." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Net directional score stays >= +20 with at least 2 independent fresh (<=24h) supply/logistics risk confirmations and no broadening harvest-improvement counter-cluster." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Two or more additional independent records within 6h corroborate harvest-volume improvement / price-reduction narrative, pushing signed directional score toward neutral (|score| < 20)." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "low", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.45 in the last 6h bucket-set (mixed signals across supply and demand)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 11, "trends_admitted": 9, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.", "Counterevidence is present but concentrated and lower-authority; no late-breaking invalidation sentinel fired (no <=2h multi-source opposing shock).", "Momentum marked weakening due to stale-suppression: much of the supportive corpus is older than 72h relative to this snapshot; fresh confirmations exist but are not dominant." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }