Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_policy_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20T06:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SIL-001 Silver futures bias higher over the next 6–24h, supported by macro/FX tailwinds (weaker USD / rising Fed cut expectations) and incremental safe-haven demand tied to geopolitical risk headlines. 62 up accelerating 6h false 55
silver B-SIL-002 Silver outperformance vs gold remains more likely than not (supportive silver/gold ratio behaviour), conditional on continued risk-premium and/or risk-on industrial demand narratives dominating over 'USD strength / inflation' headwinds. 58 up stable 24h false 55
silver B-SIL-003 Material pullback risk is present if USD strength and/or real-rate re-pricing dominates (precious-metals 'decline' framing), causing silver to mean-revert after recent surge narratives. 38 down fading 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260420T063000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T06:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures bias higher over the next 6\u201324h, supported by macro/FX tailwinds (weaker USD / rising Fed cut expectations) and incremental safe-haven demand tied to geopolitical risk headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "monetary_policy",
 "investment_flows",
 "geopolitical_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SIL-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver outperformance vs gold remains more likely than not (supportive silver/gold ratio behaviour), conditional on continued risk-premium and/or risk-on industrial demand narratives dominating over 'USD strength / inflation' headwinds.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "investment_flows",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SIL-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Material pullback risk is present if USD strength and/or real-rate re-pricing dominates (precious-metals 'decline' framing), causing silver to mean-revert after recent surge narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "monetary_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SIL-001",
 "B-SIL-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SIL-001",
 "B-SIL-002",
 "B-SIL-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 10,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 60,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 8,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 14,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 3,
 "notes": [
 "Freshness mix is estimated from trend/risk-anomaly newest timestamps and sample record recency fields; per-record distribution was not fully available to 6B."
 ]
 },
 "regime_state": "tightening"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_policy_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "silver",
 "details": "Silver sensitivity to Fed path / real-rate repricing remains a primary swing factor (cuts-bets vs inflation/dollar-strength narratives)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "precious_metals_crosscurrents",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "silver",
 "details": "Coexisting 'silver surge / outperformance' and 'precious metals decline / dollar strength' framings raise whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "surge_risk_after_fast_move",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "silver",
 "details": "Operational-surge risk framing increases downside air-pocket risk if the catalyst fades."
 },
 {
 "flag": "supply_chain_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "silver",
 "details": "Operational disruption narratives can support price via supply constraint but are episodic and headline-driven."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh macro/FX tailwinds persist (USD softness / rate-cut pricing) without a concurrent rise in opposing evidence (USD strength / real-rate spike) in the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "High sensitivity to rapid changes in Fed expectations and geopolitical headlines; monitor for abrupt narrative flips."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh signals (<=2h) shift to 'silver decline / USD strength' framing or contradiction ratio rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if directional evidence density collapses (fresh evidence count falls below threshold) and signal becomes neutral_mixed."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
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 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 14,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided; counterevidence was inferred from admitted mixed-direction trend labels (e.g., 'decline' vs 'surge/outperformance').",
 "Timeseries values are conservative and shape-driven due to lack of full per-record timestamp distribution inside 6B inputs."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}