Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_policy_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-04-20T06:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SIL-001 | Silver futures bias higher over the next 6–24h, supported by macro/FX tailwinds (weaker USD / rising Fed cut expectations) and incremental safe-haven demand tied to geopolitical risk headlines. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
| silver | B-SIL-002 | Silver outperformance vs gold remains more likely than not (supportive silver/gold ratio behaviour), conditional on continued risk-premium and/or risk-on industrial demand narratives dominating over 'USD strength / inflation' headwinds. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| silver | B-SIL-003 | Material pullback risk is present if USD strength and/or real-rate re-pricing dominates (precious-metals 'decline' framing), causing silver to mean-revert after recent surge narratives. | 38 | down | fading | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260420T063000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T06:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures bias higher over the next 6\u201324h, supported by macro/FX tailwinds (weaker USD / rising Fed cut expectations) and incremental safe-haven demand tied to geopolitical risk headlines.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"monetary_policy",
"investment_flows",
"geopolitical_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SIL-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver outperformance vs gold remains more likely than not (supportive silver/gold ratio behaviour), conditional on continued risk-premium and/or risk-on industrial demand narratives dominating over 'USD strength / inflation' headwinds.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"investment_flows",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SIL-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Material pullback risk is present if USD strength and/or real-rate re-pricing dominates (precious-metals 'decline' framing), causing silver to mean-revert after recent surge narratives.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"monetary_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SIL-001",
"B-SIL-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SIL-001",
"B-SIL-002",
"B-SIL-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 10,
"B": 3,
"C": 2,
"D": 60,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 8,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 14,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 3,
"notes": [
"Freshness mix is estimated from trend/risk-anomaly newest timestamps and sample record recency fields; per-record distribution was not fully available to 6B."
]
},
"regime_state": "tightening"
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_policy_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "silver",
"details": "Silver sensitivity to Fed path / real-rate repricing remains a primary swing factor (cuts-bets vs inflation/dollar-strength narratives)."
},
{
"flag": "precious_metals_crosscurrents",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "silver",
"details": "Coexisting 'silver surge / outperformance' and 'precious metals decline / dollar strength' framings raise whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "surge_risk_after_fast_move",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "silver",
"details": "Operational-surge risk framing increases downside air-pocket risk if the catalyst fades."
},
{
"flag": "supply_chain_noise",
"severity": "low",
"market": "silver",
"details": "Operational disruption narratives can support price via supply constraint but are episodic and headline-driven."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh macro/FX tailwinds persist (USD softness / rate-cut pricing) without a concurrent rise in opposing evidence (USD strength / real-rate spike) in the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "High sensitivity to rapid changes in Fed expectations and geopolitical headlines; monitor for abrupt narrative flips."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh signals (<=2h) shift to 'silver decline / USD strength' framing or contradiction ratio rises materially."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if directional evidence density collapses (fresh evidence count falls below threshold) and signal becomes neutral_mixed."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 14,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; counterevidence was inferred from admitted mixed-direction trend labels (e.g., 'decline' vs 'surge/outperformance').",
"Timeseries values are conservative and shape-driven due to lack of full per-record timestamp distribution inside 6B inputs."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}