Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: recency_dominant_event_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20 14:50 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term risk premium remains biased to the upside for natural gas as Middle East maritime/security headlines sustain perceived LNG flow disruption risk. 62 up accelerating 6h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-002 Reversal risk is elevated: any credible de-escalation / transit normalisation headlines can quickly unwind the risk premium and pull prices back. 38 down stable 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260420T145000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T14:50:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term risk premium remains biased to the upside for natural gas as Middle East maritime/security headlines sustain perceived LNG flow disruption risk.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows",
 "pipeline_infrastructure (indirect via rerouting / logistics constraints)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is elevated: any credible de-escalation / transit normalisation headlines can quickly unwind the risk premium and pull prices back.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 6,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 141,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h": 1,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-RECENCY-DOMINANT",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "label": "recency_dominant_event_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Direction is largely supported by fast-moving geopolitical/LNG-flow narratives within the last ~24h; susceptible to abrupt headline flips."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-AUTHORITY-SKEW",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "label": "low_tier_share_high",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of propagation is from lower-tier domains; treat as volatility amplifier rather than sole confirmation."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-REVERSAL-WATCH",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "label": "headline_driven_reversal_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Limited but present de-escalation/transit-normalisation indications create non-trivial downside reversal pathways within 24h."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent sources reiterate LNG/shipping disruption risk or European gas price tightness, while no credible de-escalation headlines emerge."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence increases (multiple new geopolitical/shipping updates within 1\u20133 hours) indicating rapid narrative acceleration."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If credible confirmation appears that key shipping lanes/transit have normalised or conflict risk is materially de-escalating (2+ independent sources)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises (mixed signals) and directional_score_signed compresses into the neutral band (between -20 and +20) for 3+ consecutive buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 4,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit).",
 "Admitted signals are predominantly geopolitical/LNG-flow risk-premium narratives; limited direct US Henry Hub fundamentals (weather/storage/production) present in this slice.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; reversal risk inferred from presence of de-escalation/transit-normalisation mentions in VIP/risk lanes plus event-driven fragility."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}