Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-20T15:02:57Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures near-term sentiment is neutral/mixed because the mapped signal set is sparse and overwhelmingly stale (>72h), with no fresh corroboration inside the last 24–72 hours. 58 mixed fading 24h false 25
gold B-GOLD-002 Gold-specific trade/logistics disruption chatter exists but is not directionally reliable (singleton-style items with limited corroboration), implying elevated fragility rather than a clean bullish/bearish impulse. 55 mixed stable 6h false 22

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_gold_20260420T150257Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T15:02:57Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures near-term sentiment is neutral/mixed because the mapped signal set is sparse and overwhelmingly stale (>72h), with no fresh corroboration inside the last 24\\u201372 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity",
 "stale_signal_overhang",
 "uncorroborated_singletons"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any new high-density macro (real-rates/USD) or geopolitical escalation evidence inside the next 6\\u201324h would invalidate this neutral-stale assessment."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold-specific trade/logistics disruption chatter exists but is not directionally reliable (singleton-style items with limited corroboration), implying elevated fragility rather than a clean bullish/bearish impulse.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_flow_uncertainty",
 "market_premium_risk",
 "echo_concentration_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Multi-source confirmation (2+ independent sources) of sustained supply/flow disruption would raise directional mass and could shift state away from neutral."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 24,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 3,
 "latest_mapped_signal_utc": "2026-03-09T05:56:54Z"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "All mapped gold signals are older than 72h (mostly early March 2026), so persistence is treated as background-only and conviction is capped."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Mapped gold signal set is small and singleton-heavy; direction is suppressed to neutral/mixed under the client thresholding policy."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "flag": "echo_concentration_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Some mapped items are single-domain/single-record and not corroborated, raising fragility even when direction is neutral."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh evidence remains absent (no multi-source confirmation within the next 6\\u201324h) and stale suppression remains active."
 },
 {
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=24h) Tier-A or multi-source macro/geopolitical shock headline appears that plausibly shifts safe-haven/real-rate expectations."
 },
 {
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "A sudden cluster of fresh opposing-direction gold drivers appears (e.g., real-rates up + USD strength) after a period of neutral/stale signals."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to gold; single-market synthesis enforced.",
 "Mapped gold-relevant items are predominantly early March 2026; no material gold-mapped evidence inside the last 72h window ending 2026-04-20.",
 "Direction suppressed to neutral/mixed per client instruction when freshness is degraded and corroboration is thin."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}