Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: reversal_watch
- generated_at: 2026-04-20 14:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-01 |
Copper futures are biased upward over the next 24h as supply-side tightness narratives (shortage / supply-chain security / disruption risk) dominate near-term demand concerns. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
49 |
| copper |
B-copper-02 |
Near-term (6h) copper sentiment is strengthening as fresh coverage clusters around energy-transition / infrastructure buildout themes and policy-driven supply-chain positioning. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
49 |
| copper |
B-copper-03 |
Downside/reversal risk is non-trivial within 24h if China demand-sensitive signals (industrial/steel-linked softness) and policy uncertainty translate into risk-off positioning. |
35 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
49 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260420-copper-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-01",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures are biased upward over the next 24h as supply-side tightness narratives (shortage / supply-chain security / disruption risk) dominate near-term demand concerns.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"trade_policy",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"supply_chain_security_narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-02",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) copper sentiment is strengthening as fresh coverage clusters around energy-transition / infrastructure buildout themes and policy-driven supply-chain positioning.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"trade_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-03",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Downside/reversal risk is non-trivial within 24h if China demand-sensitive signals (industrial/steel-linked softness) and policy uncertainty translate into risk-off positioning.",
"probability_pct": 35,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"industrial_demand",
"trade_policy_uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-copper-01",
"B-copper-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-01",
"B-copper-02",
"B-copper-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 88,
"B": 10,
"C": 13,
"D": 484,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 16,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 28,
"stale_gt_24h_est": 12,
"fresh_share_est_0_to_1": 0.69
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "reversal_watch",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Medium reversal risk: trade-policy uncertainty + demand-sensitive China indicators could swing tone quickly despite dominant supply-tightness narratives."
},
{
"flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_tail",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of corroboration comes from lower-tier domains; maintain sensitivity to Tier-A/Tier-B confirmations."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Trade/regulatory headlines (e.g., tariffs/Section 232/USTR framing) can produce rapid sentiment flips even without new physical supply/demand data."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while net sentiment score stays > +20 and fresh evidence count remains elevated in the most recent 3 buckets."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.22 within 2 consecutive hourly buckets (headline-driven whipsaw risk)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if directional_score_signed falls below +20 with fresh opposing (demand-weakness) evidence appearing in 2+ independent sources inside 6h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table). state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
"No explicit contradictions array provided in 5B payload; counterevidence estimated from mixed-sentiment drivers rather than formal contradiction records.",
"Timeseries buckets are conservative approximations derived from admitted signal temporal_profile peaks and available published_at samples; full per-record timestamps were not available in the gated message payload."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}