Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: macro_policy_sensitivity
  • generated_at: 2026-04-19 14:20 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-01 Silver futures have upward bias as rate-cut expectations and softer USD/real-rates framing dominate recent precious-metals narratives. 63 up accelerating 6h false 47
silver B-SI-02 Silver maintains constructive (bullish-leaning) narrative support from precious-metals allocation and supply/deficit framing, supporting strength vs gold in parts of the discourse. 60 up stable 24h false 47

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260419T142059Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-19T14:20:59Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-01",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver futures have upward bias as rate-cut expectations and softer USD/real-rates framing dominate recent precious-metals narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "macro_headline_reversal_risk_if_rates_reprice_higher"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-02",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver maintains constructive (bullish-leaning) narrative support from precious-metals allocation and supply/deficit framing, supporting strength vs gold in parts of the discourse.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "investment_flows",
 "mine_supply",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "risk_of_geopolitical_easing_reducing_safe_haven_bid",
 "risk_of_supply_disruption_story_fading_without_follow_through"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-01",
 "B-SI-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 12,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 120,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 10,
 "fresh_6_24h": 26,
 "fresh_24_72h": 18,
 "stale_over_72h": 6
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_policy_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Silver narrative support is heavily linked to rate-expectation / USD / real-rates framing; rapid repricing can flip direction quickly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_gap_vs_mass",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad but skewed toward lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk_geopolitics",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Precious-metals bid is partly safe-haven driven; easing/escalation headlines can cause abrupt reversals."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence dominance (0-24h) and no contradiction spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear OR contradiction ratio rises materially vs prior cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Macro-policy headline cluster (Fed speakers / inflation / USD swing) coincides with rising fragility score (>60)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "silver"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
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 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid implying a detected flip.",
 "Counterevidence set is limited/indirect; reversal risk elevated to 'medium' primarily due to macro headline sensitivity rather than observed contradiction spikes."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}