Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: macro_policy_sensitivity
- generated_at: 2026-04-19 14:20 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SI-01 | Silver futures have upward bias as rate-cut expectations and softer USD/real-rates framing dominate recent precious-metals narratives. | 63 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 47 |
| silver | B-SI-02 | Silver maintains constructive (bullish-leaning) narrative support from precious-metals allocation and supply/deficit framing, supporting strength vs gold in parts of the discourse. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 47 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260419T142059Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-19T14:20:59Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-01",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures have upward bias as rate-cut expectations and softer USD/real-rates framing dominate recent precious-metals narratives.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"macro_headline_reversal_risk_if_rates_reprice_higher"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-02",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver maintains constructive (bullish-leaning) narrative support from precious-metals allocation and supply/deficit framing, supporting strength vs gold in parts of the discourse.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows",
"mine_supply",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"risk_of_geopolitical_easing_reducing_safe_haven_bid",
"risk_of_supply_disruption_story_fading_without_follow_through"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-01",
"B-SI-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 12,
"B": 2,
"C": 2,
"D": 120,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 10,
"fresh_6_24h": 26,
"fresh_24_72h": 18,
"stale_over_72h": 6
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_policy_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Silver narrative support is heavily linked to rate-expectation / USD / real-rates framing; rapid repricing can flip direction quickly."
},
{
"flag": "authority_gap_vs_mass",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad but skewed toward lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk_geopolitics",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Precious-metals bid is partly safe-haven driven; easing/escalation headlines can cause abrupt reversals."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence dominance (0-24h) and no contradiction spike."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear OR contradiction ratio rises materially vs prior cycle."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Macro-policy headline cluster (Fed speakers / inflation / USD swing) coincides with rising fragility score (>60)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"silver"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid implying a detected flip.",
"Counterevidence set is limited/indirect; reversal risk elevated to 'medium' primarily due to macro headline sensitivity rather than observed contradiction spikes."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}