Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-19T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-lithium-001 | Lithium futures are experiencing upward price pressure from supply-constraint narratives (supply deficit / disruptions) alongside sustained EV + storage demand framing. | 64 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 47 |
| lithium | B-lithium-002 | Near-term (6h) sentiment remains skewed bullish as fresh coverage continues to reinforce supply tightness and price-surge chatter, with limited explicit counterevidence in the admitted corpus. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 47 |
| lithium | B-lithium-003 | Volatility risk is elevated: the narrative stack is broad and fast-moving, but heavily skewed to lower-tier sources and policy/regulatory risk items, increasing whipsaw potential without requiring immediate direction reversal evidence. | 62 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 47 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260419T150000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 79, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 47, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-lithium-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Lithium futures are experiencing upward price pressure from supply-constraint narratives (supply deficit / disruptions) alongside sustained EV + storage demand framing.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "lithium_mining_supply", "battery_supply_chain", "ev_demand", "refining_capacity" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 82, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term (6h) sentiment remains skewed bullish as fresh coverage continues to reinforce supply tightness and price-surge chatter, with limited explicit counterevidence in the admitted corpus.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "battery_supply_chain", "lithium_mining_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 51, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-003", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: the narrative stack is broad and fast-moving, but heavily skewed to lower-tier sources and policy/regulatory risk items, increasing whipsaw potential without requiring immediate direction reversal evidence.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "china_policy", "ev_policy_subsidies", "lithium_mining_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 49, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84, "conviction_score_0_100": 79, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-lithium-001", "B-lithium-002", "B-lithium-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 2, "B": 11, "C": 8, "D": 240, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_estimated_share_0_to_1": 0.42, "fresh_6_24h_estimated_share_0_to_1": 0.44, "fresh_24_72h_estimated_share_0_to_1": 0.14, "gt_72h_estimated_share_0_to_1": 0.0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "low_authority_overhang", "severity": "medium", "market": "lithium", "details": "Directional mass is broad and fresh, but the admitted evidence mix is dominated by Tier-D sources; treat conviction as more fragile than a high-authority-confirmed move." }, { "flag": "volatility_watch_price_surge_narrative", "severity": "medium", "market": "lithium", "details": "Multiple items reference price-surge / supply-constraint framing; this often raises short-horizon volatility even when direction remains bullish." }, { "flag": "policy_regulatory_uncertainty", "severity": "low", "market": "lithium", "details": "Policy/regulatory risk items present (resource nationalism / emissions / industrial policy context) but not yet forming fresh counter-direction evidence." }, { "flag": "unknown_prior_state", "severity": "low", "market": "lithium", "details": "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was provided to compute a deterministic state transition; state_change kept as 'unchanged' with this caveat." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "high", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh supportive signals continue to arrive without a rise in contradictory evidence (next 6\u201324h windows)." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if price-surge/supply-shock narratives intensify further or if coverage concentration increases (echo risk)." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch only if fresh (\u22642h) opposing evidence appears from 2+ independent sources or a single hard invalidator emerges." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, 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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, 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"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 78, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 79, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 7, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio treated as low in-state and in timeseries.", "Unmapped signals were present (EV-only / company-only items); they were not force-mapped to lithium unless lithium linkage was evident in the trend bundle context.", "source_tier_counts are aggregated from admitted signal bundles and may double-count shared underlying records." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }