Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-RECENCY-GAP
  • generated_at: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures have a slight upward bias over the next 24h on residual geopolitical-risk/safe-haven framing, but the supporting evidence in this cycle is mostly stale and thin. 52 up fading 24h false 76
gold B-GOLD-002 Gold futures are more likely to be rangebound/mixed over the next 6h because there is insufficient fresh (0–24h) macro/flow evidence in the admitted gold-mapped corpus. 60 mixed stable 6h false 76

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_gold_2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures have a slight upward bias over the next 24h on residual geopolitical-risk/safe-haven framing, but the supporting evidence in this cycle is mostly stale and thin.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk (background)",
 "physical market dislocation / trade-route frictions (thin evidence)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "lack_of_fresh_confirmation_last_24h",
 "data_sparsity_on_real_rates_usd_cb_flows"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 41,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to be rangebound/mixed over the next 6h because there is insufficient fresh (0\u201324h) macro/flow evidence in the admitted gold-mapped corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "recency gap vs. trading horizon",
 "thin gold-specific signal set (mostly singletons)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "any_new_high-authority_gold-specific_macro_or_flow_update"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 35,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h": 0,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "very_stale_gt_72h": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-RECENCY-GAP",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "description": "Most mapped gold-specific evidence timestamps are from 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09, which is >72h old relative to 2026-04-19; recency weighting strongly downweights them."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-DATA-SPARSITY",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "description": "Gold-mapped signals are dominated by singleton/outlier items (low corroboration), limiting directional mass and increasing fragility."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NARRATIVE-WHIPSAW",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "description": "Background geopolitical narratives can flip risk sentiment quickly; with low fresh confirmation, perceived direction is fragile."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Until 2+ independent fresh (<=24h) gold-mapped confirmations arrive (rates/USD/CB flows/ETF flows or gold-specific market-structure updates)."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical escalation is confirmed across multiple independent sources and is explicitly linked to safe-haven flow into gold."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-authority macro print/commentary (real rates/USD) appears that contradicts the current slight-up bias framing."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target resolved explicitly: gold.",
 "Gold-mapped evidence in this packet is dominated by VIP singleton-style items (e.g., GLD/gold-market notes) with timestamps clustered 2026-03-04..2026-03-09; this is stale vs snapshot 2026-04-19.",
 "Stale suppression applied: directional view capped; momentum set to weakening; conviction held below directional threshold -> neutral_mixed.",
 "Prior-state memory not supplied in inputs; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}