• subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-19T16:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 6–24h, supported by a broad, fresh demand-led narrative (grid/EV/infrastructure/energy-transition) and recurring tightness/imbalance framing. 66 up accelerating 6h false 38
copper B-copper-002 Downside reversals are less supported by current evidence, but reversal risk can rise quickly if fresh policy/trade headlines cluster and shift the demand narrative within a short window. 34 down fading 24h false 38
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis-20260419-copper-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 6\u201324h, supported by a broad, fresh demand-led narrative (grid/EV/infrastructure/energy-transition) and recurring tightness/imbalance framing.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "electric grid modernisation / power infrastructure buildout",
 "EV/infrastructure buildout sentiment",
 "supply-demand imbalance / tightness framing",
 "China policy / macro-growth narrative spillover"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "single-source / thin signals implying policy drag on renewable deployment (demand-risk)",
 "trade-policy headline risk (uncertain timing/implementation)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Downside reversals are less supported by current evidence, but reversal risk can rise quickly if fresh policy/trade headlines cluster and shift the demand narrative within a short window.",
 "probability_pct": 34,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy uncertainty",
 "regulatory/political shocks impacting energy-transition spend",
 "macro-risk / risk-off spillover (not yet dominant in admitted signals)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "broad multi-source pro-demand narrative remains dominant and recently refreshed",
 "lack of admitted fresh, multi-source bearish copper-specific evidence"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 32,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 26,
 "B": 7,
 "C": 4,
 "D": 210,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_evidence_dominant": true,
 "fresh_0_6h": "moderate",
 "fresh_6_24h": "high",
 "stale_overhang_gt_72h": "present_but_secondary"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "level": "medium",
 "why": "Demand narrative is broad and strengthening, but policy/trade headlines can pivot sentiment quickly despite currently thin, non-clustered counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "level": "low",
 "why": "Several supporting themes span >7d; however, they are being refreshed by new mentions, so stale suppression was not applied."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_concentration_in_some_lanes",
 "level": "low",
 "why": "Some VIP/risk items are single-source; they are treated as watch-only and not used to drive main direction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain net directional_score_signed >= +25 with contradiction_ratio <= 0.20 over the next 6h bucket sequence."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh bearish copper-demand or macro-risk records appear within <=2h AND contradiction_ratio rises by ~0.10+ versus prior cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "contradiction_ratio >= 0.25 OR rapid directional_score_signed swing of 25+ points within 3 buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "thesis_kill_switch becomes true due to late-breaking invalidation (official hard invalidator or 2+ independent opposing records <=2h)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-19T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-19T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 59,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 59,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 59,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to 'copper' from flight_plan.",
 "No admitted explicit contradictory trend set; reversal_risk set to medium primarily due to policy/trade headline sensitivity rather than observed opposing mass.",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change defaulted to 'new_bullish' for first-run state initialisation."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}