Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-18T18:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B1 | Coffee futures have an upside skew over the next 24h as logistics and shipping disruption narratives (delays, congestion, container/friction) keep near-term supply availability uncertain. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 48 |
| coffee | B2 | Coffee futures remain supported by supply-side cost/tightness risks (farm labour constraints, input costs, and production cost pressures), limiting downside over the next 6–24h window. | 60 | up | stable | 6h | false | 48 |
| coffee | B3 | Demand/consumption narratives (retail chain expansion and beverage market growth) add secondary support to coffee price sentiment, but with slower transmission than supply shocks. | 55 | up | fading | 24h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260418T180000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Coffee futures have an upside skew over the next 24h as logistics and shipping disruption narratives (delays, congestion, container/friction) keep near-term supply availability uncertain.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply", "macro (geopolitical logistics risk spillover)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Coffee futures remain supported by supply-side cost/tightness risks (farm labour constraints, input costs, and production cost pressures), limiting downside over the next 6\u201324h window.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "labour_costs", "origin_supply", "production/input costs" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Demand/consumption narratives (retail chain expansion and beverage market growth) add secondary support to coffee price sentiment, but with slower transmission than supply shocks.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "consumption_trends" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2", "B3" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 110, "B": 10, "C": 5, "D": 250, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signals": 2, "fresh_6_24h_signals": 1, "fresh_24_72h_signals": 8, "stale_gt_72h_signals": 1 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Core supply/logistics narratives have fresh confirmations but much of the supporting corpus clusters in the 24\u201372h window, reducing momentum clarity." }, { "flag": "cross_driver_contamination", "market": "coffee", "severity": "low", "detail": "Some admitted drivers are broad agri input-cost narratives; they support the thesis but are not coffee-specific catalysts." }, { "flag": "reversal_watch_mixed_drivers", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Directional view is supported by multiple domains (logistics, labour/costs, demand); regime could whipsaw if one driver abruptly resolves." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If net directional_score_signed stays >= +40 with no late-breaking invalidation signals in the next cycle.", "action": "watch_long_bias" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fragility_score_0_100 rises above 60 or reversal_risk escalates to high due to fresh opposing evidence.", "action": "volatility_watch" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises materially (>0.25) or two+ independent fresh opposing signals appear within 2h.", "action": "reversal_watch" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If thesis_kill_switch becomes true due to late-breaking invalidation sentinel firing.", "action": "hard_de_risk_watch" } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z", 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"directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 0, 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"fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z", 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"fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 53, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 53, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 53, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 53, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target resolved explicitly to coffee; single-market scope enforced.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; counterevidence treated as low.", "Source tier counts are aggregated from admitted trend bundles and are not deduplicated across overlapping evidence pools.", "Prior state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }