Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-18T18:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B1 Coffee futures have an upside skew over the next 24h as logistics and shipping disruption narratives (delays, congestion, container/friction) keep near-term supply availability uncertain. 62 up stable 24h false 48
coffee B2 Coffee futures remain supported by supply-side cost/tightness risks (farm labour constraints, input costs, and production cost pressures), limiting downside over the next 6–24h window. 60 up stable 6h false 48
coffee B3 Demand/consumption narratives (retail chain expansion and beverage market growth) add secondary support to coffee price sentiment, but with slower transmission than supply shocks. 55 up fading 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260418T180000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Coffee futures have an upside skew over the next 24h as logistics and shipping disruption narratives (delays, congestion, container/friction) keep near-term supply availability uncertain.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply", "macro (geopolitical logistics risk spillover)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Coffee futures remain supported by supply-side cost/tightness risks (farm labour constraints, input costs, and production cost pressures), limiting downside over the next 6\u201324h window.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "labour_costs", "origin_supply", "production/input costs" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Demand/consumption narratives (retail chain expansion and beverage market growth) add secondary support to coffee price sentiment, but with slower transmission than supply shocks.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "consumption_trends" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2", "B3" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 110, "B": 10, "C": 5, "D": 250, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signals": 2, "fresh_6_24h_signals": 1, "fresh_24_72h_signals": 8, "stale_gt_72h_signals": 1 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Core supply/logistics narratives have fresh confirmations but much of the supporting corpus clusters in the 24\u201372h window, reducing momentum clarity." }, { "flag": "cross_driver_contamination", "market": "coffee", "severity": "low", "detail": "Some admitted drivers are broad agri input-cost narratives; they support the thesis but are not coffee-specific catalysts." }, { "flag": "reversal_watch_mixed_drivers", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Directional view is supported by multiple domains (logistics, labour/costs, demand); regime could whipsaw if one driver abruptly resolves." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If net directional_score_signed stays >= +40 with no late-breaking invalidation signals in the next cycle.", "action": "watch_long_bias" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fragility_score_0_100 rises above 60 or reversal_risk escalates to high due to fresh opposing evidence.", "action": "volatility_watch" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises materially (>0.25) or two+ independent fresh opposing signals appear within 2h.", "action": "reversal_watch" }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If thesis_kill_switch becomes true due to late-breaking invalidation sentinel firing.", "action": "hard_de_risk_watch" } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 53, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 53, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 51, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 51, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 57, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 57, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 53, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 53, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 53, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 53, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target resolved explicitly to coffee; single-market scope enforced.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; counterevidence treated as low.", "Source tier counts are aggregated from admitted trend bundles and are not deduplicated across overlapping evidence pools.", "Prior state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }