Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_rate_sensitivity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-18 23:30 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-01 Over the next 6h–24h, silver futures are more likely to drift higher than lower, supported by (a) risk-on precious-metals appetite and (b) USD/real-rate expectation tailwinds (weaker USD / greater rate-cut probability framing in the corpus). 62 up accelerating 24h false 52
silver B-SI-02 Industrial-demand narrative (solar/industrial channel) and supply-side disruption headlines are currently net-supportive for silver price perception, but are more fragile than macro drivers due to mixed source quality and uneven recency. 58 up stable 24h false 52
silver B-SI-03 A near-term pullback risk remains meaningful if incoming macro commentary re-prices rates/real yields higher (hawkish surprise), reducing precious-metals demand. 38 down stable 6h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_silver_2026-04-18T23:30:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T23:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-01",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h\u201324h, silver futures are more likely to drift higher than lower, supported by (a) risk-on precious-metals appetite and (b) USD/real-rate expectation tailwinds (weaker USD / greater rate-cut probability framing in the corpus).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "monetary_policy",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-03"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-02",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Industrial-demand narrative (solar/industrial channel) and supply-side disruption headlines are currently net-supportive for silver price perception, but are more fragile than macro drivers due to mixed source quality and uneven recency.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-03"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-03",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "A near-term pullback risk remains meaningful if incoming macro commentary re-prices rates/real yields higher (hawkish surprise), reducing precious-metals demand.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-01",
 "B-SI-02"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 79,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-01",
 "B-SI-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 47,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 240,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_count": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h_count": 4,
 "fresh_24_72h_count": 2,
 "stale_over_72h_count": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_rate_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Silver direction remains highly sensitive to marginal shifts in real-rate / Fed-expectations framing; reversal risk elevated versus supply-only stories."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Directional mass is broad, but evidence mix is skewed toward lower-tier sources in multiple admitted items; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_flow_signals_present",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Some ETF/flow-related VIP outliers are single-source and should not be treated as standalone conviction drivers."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "A portion of supply-disruption / mining context is older than 72h and treated as background unless refreshed."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh macro-driven evidence continues to cluster in the most recent 0\u20136h window with low contradiction, maintain watch_long_bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises (fresh hawkish / higher-real-rate repricing signals), switch to reversal_watch / hard_de_risk_watch labeling."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If evidence becomes sparse in the next cycle (fresh_evidence_count falls below threshold), prefer stay_flat labeling."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:30:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:30:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:30:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": -25,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:30:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 25,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -25,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:30:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 45,
 "acceleration_score": 60,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -45,
 "acceleration_score": -90,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 60,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope constrained to silver only; gold-only trends were excluded unless they explicitly co-mentioned Silver / silver market dynamics.",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
 "Timeseries is proxy-bucketed using latest update timestamps of admitted items (not full per-record tick distribution)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}