Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_rate_sensitivity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-18 23:30 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-01 |
Over the next 6h–24h, silver futures are more likely to drift higher than lower, supported by (a) risk-on precious-metals appetite and (b) USD/real-rate expectation tailwinds (weaker USD / greater rate-cut probability framing in the corpus). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
52 |
| silver |
B-SI-02 |
Industrial-demand narrative (solar/industrial channel) and supply-side disruption headlines are currently net-supportive for silver price perception, but are more fragile than macro drivers due to mixed source quality and uneven recency. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
| silver |
B-SI-03 |
A near-term pullback risk remains meaningful if incoming macro commentary re-prices rates/real yields higher (hawkish surprise), reducing precious-metals demand. |
38 |
down |
stable |
6h |
false |
52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_silver_2026-04-18T23:30:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T23:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-01",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6h\u201324h, silver futures are more likely to drift higher than lower, supported by (a) risk-on precious-metals appetite and (b) USD/real-rate expectation tailwinds (weaker USD / greater rate-cut probability framing in the corpus).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"monetary_policy",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-02",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Industrial-demand narrative (solar/industrial channel) and supply-side disruption headlines are currently net-supportive for silver price perception, but are more fragile than macro drivers due to mixed source quality and uneven recency.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-03",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "A near-term pullback risk remains meaningful if incoming macro commentary re-prices rates/real yields higher (hawkish surprise), reducing precious-metals demand.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-01",
"B-SI-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 79,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-01",
"B-SI-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 47,
"B": 2,
"C": 7,
"D": 240,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_count": 4,
"fresh_6_24h_count": 4,
"fresh_24_72h_count": 2,
"stale_over_72h_count": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_rate_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Silver direction remains highly sensitive to marginal shifts in real-rate / Fed-expectations framing; reversal risk elevated versus supply-only stories."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Directional mass is broad, but evidence mix is skewed toward lower-tier sources in multiple admitted items; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_flow_signals_present",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Some ETF/flow-related VIP outliers are single-source and should not be treated as standalone conviction drivers."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"note": "A portion of supply-disruption / mining context is older than 72h and treated as background unless refreshed."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh macro-driven evidence continues to cluster in the most recent 0\u20136h window with low contradiction, maintain watch_long_bias."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises (fresh hawkish / higher-real-rate repricing signals), switch to reversal_watch / hard_de_risk_watch labeling."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence becomes sparse in the next cycle (fresh_evidence_count falls below threshold), prefer stay_flat labeling."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:30:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:30:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:30:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -50,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -50,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 45,
"acceleration_score": 60,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -45,
"acceleration_score": -90,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 60,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope constrained to silver only; gold-only trends were excluded unless they explicitly co-mentioned Silver / silver market dynamics.",
"State-change computed with unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
"Timeseries is proxy-bucketed using latest update timestamps of admitted items (not full per-record tick distribution)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}