Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-SI-001 (macro_whipsaw_risk) - Bias is bullish but highly sensitive to near-term USD and rate-expectations repricing.
  • generated_at: 2026-04-18T07:01:22Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Near-term narrative flow remains supportive for silver futures, driven by (a) rate-cut expectations/real-rate relief framing and (b) safe-haven/investment-flow language spilling over from gold into silver. 68 up accelerating 6h false 46
silver B-SI-002 Volatility risk is elevated: the same macro catalysts supporting silver (USD moves, Fed expectations) can reverse quickly, creating a whipsaw risk despite the current bullish bias. 62 mixed stable 24h false 46
silver B-SI-003 Industry/mining-project headlines contribute mixed medium-term implications: incremental project-development chatter is not a clear near-term bearish price signal, but it introduces supply-side narrative noise that can dilute pure macro-driven bullishness. 55 mixed fading 24h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_silver_20260418T070122Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T07:01:22Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term narrative flow remains supportive for silver futures, driven by (a) rate-cut expectations/real-rate relief framing and (b) safe-haven/investment-flow language spilling over from gold into silver.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "real_rates",
 "investment_flows",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Hawkish re-pricing risk (rates/USD) can quickly flip precious-metals sentiment."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: the same macro catalysts supporting silver (USD moves, Fed expectations) can reverse quickly, creating a whipsaw risk despite the current bullish bias.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Industry/mining-project headlines contribute mixed medium-term implications: incremental project-development chatter is not a clear near-term bearish price signal, but it introduces supply-side narrative noise that can dilute pure macro-driven bullishness.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002",
 "B-SI-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "anchor_tier_A": 8,
 "anchor_tier_B": 0,
 "anchor_tier_C": 0,
 "anchor_tier_D": 1,
 "anchor_tier_U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 7,
 "signals_6_24h": 2,
 "signals_24_72h": 0,
 "signals_over_72h": 0
 },
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 18,
 "reversal_triggered": false,
 "reversal_evidence_summary": "No strong fresh opposing silver-specific directional cluster detected; reversal risk is primarily macro-driven (rates/USD repricing) rather than evidence-based contradiction inside the admitted corpus."
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "macro_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Bias is bullish but highly sensitive to near-term USD and rate-expectations repricing."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful share of supporting items are non-institutional/retail-facing commentary; conviction is therefore more fragile than a purely Tier-A-driven cycle."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "volatility_event_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "\u2018Surge\u2019 framing plus supply-chain disruption chatter increases the odds of sharp intraday swings (both directions)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If bullish directional mass persists (no fresh opposing cluster) across the next 2\u20134 hourly buckets, maintain a long-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially or macro headlines flip rates/USD expectations, shift to reversal_watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If rapid price/sentiment swings persist (surge language + supply disruption narratives), maintain volatility_watch even if direction stays bullish."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = silver.",
 "State-change computed with no prior state provided; baseline prior assumed neutral_mixed => new_bullish.",
 "Source-tier counts use per-signal narrative anchors (not summed evidence-record tiers) to avoid double-counting overlaps."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}