Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-SI-001 (macro_whipsaw_risk) - Bias is bullish but highly sensitive to near-term USD and rate-expectations repricing.
- generated_at: 2026-04-18T07:01:22Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SI-001 | Near-term narrative flow remains supportive for silver futures, driven by (a) rate-cut expectations/real-rate relief framing and (b) safe-haven/investment-flow language spilling over from gold into silver. | 68 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 46 |
| silver | B-SI-002 | Volatility risk is elevated: the same macro catalysts supporting silver (USD moves, Fed expectations) can reverse quickly, creating a whipsaw risk despite the current bullish bias. | 62 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 46 |
| silver | B-SI-003 | Industry/mining-project headlines contribute mixed medium-term implications: incremental project-development chatter is not a clear near-term bearish price signal, but it introduces supply-side narrative noise that can dilute pure macro-driven bullishness. | 55 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_silver_20260418T070122Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T07:01:22Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term narrative flow remains supportive for silver futures, driven by (a) rate-cut expectations/real-rate relief framing and (b) safe-haven/investment-flow language spilling over from gold into silver.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"real_rates",
"investment_flows",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Hawkish re-pricing risk (rates/USD) can quickly flip precious-metals sentiment."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: the same macro catalysts supporting silver (USD moves, Fed expectations) can reverse quickly, creating a whipsaw risk despite the current bullish bias.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Industry/mining-project headlines contribute mixed medium-term implications: incremental project-development chatter is not a clear near-term bearish price signal, but it introduces supply-side narrative noise that can dilute pure macro-driven bullishness.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002",
"B-SI-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"anchor_tier_A": 8,
"anchor_tier_B": 0,
"anchor_tier_C": 0,
"anchor_tier_D": 1,
"anchor_tier_U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 7,
"signals_6_24h": 2,
"signals_24_72h": 0,
"signals_over_72h": 0
},
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 18,
"reversal_triggered": false,
"reversal_evidence_summary": "No strong fresh opposing silver-specific directional cluster detected; reversal risk is primarily macro-driven (rates/USD repricing) rather than evidence-based contradiction inside the admitted corpus."
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"type": "macro_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Bias is bullish but highly sensitive to near-term USD and rate-expectations repricing."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"type": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful share of supporting items are non-institutional/retail-facing commentary; conviction is therefore more fragile than a purely Tier-A-driven cycle."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"type": "volatility_event_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "\u2018Surge\u2019 framing plus supply-chain disruption chatter increases the odds of sharp intraday swings (both directions)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If bullish directional mass persists (no fresh opposing cluster) across the next 2\u20134 hourly buckets, maintain a long-bias watch."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially or macro headlines flip rates/USD expectations, shift to reversal_watch."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If rapid price/sentiment swings persist (surge language + supply disruption narratives), maintain volatility_watch even if direction stays bullish."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
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"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
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"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
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"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = silver.",
"State-change computed with no prior state provided; baseline prior assumed neutral_mixed => new_bullish.",
"Source-tier counts use per-signal narrative anchors (not summed evidence-record tiers) to avoid double-counting overlaps."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}