Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: structural_counter_driver_supply_relief
  • generated_at: 2026-04-18T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-01 Net narrative flow implies higher lithium futures pressure over the next 24h, led by EV adoption/demand optimism and repeated lithium supply-deficit framing. 62 up accelerating 24h false 46
lithium B-LI-02 Supply-side relief narratives (extraction technology breakthroughs / refining & offtake scaling) can cap lithium futures upside or create a fast sentiment rollback within 24h. 38 mixed stable 24h false 46
lithium B-LI-03 Short-horizon (next 6h) lithium futures sentiment remains positively biased, but is vulnerable to demand-side downside headlines (EV adoption friction / charging utilisation / sales slowdown pockets). 58 up stable 6h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_6B_lithium_2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Net narrative flow implies higher lithium futures pressure over the next 24h, led by EV adoption/demand optimism and repeated lithium supply-deficit framing.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / product-launch + manufacturing-expansion cadence (demand-side pull-through)",
 "Repeated deficit/constraint framing in lithium supply chain narratives",
 "Broad multi-source propagation across the last ~48h with continued fresh updates into the last few hours"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-02"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-02",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-side relief narratives (extraction technology breakthroughs / refining & offtake scaling) can cap lithium futures upside or create a fast sentiment rollback within 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Direct lithium extraction (DLE) / process innovation narratives (potential future supply expansion)",
 "Scaling/industrialisation stories in refining and cathode supply chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-01",
 "B-LI-03"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 41,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-03",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Short-horizon (next 6h) lithium futures sentiment remains positively biased, but is vulnerable to demand-side downside headlines (EV adoption friction / charging utilisation / sales slowdown pockets).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Late-cycle fresh updates maintaining positive net pressure",
 "Demand-side signals remain dominant in breadth, even with scattered negative outliers"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-02"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-01",
 "B-LI-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 45,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 21,
 "D": 379,
 "U": 0,
 "notes": "Counts are an aggregate across admitted trend bundles and may double-count shared records reused across multiple trends."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h_est": 290,
 "mid_24_72h_est": 160,
 "stale_gt72h_est": 0,
 "notes": "Estimated from per-trend evidence_recency_proxy windows and newest/oldest timestamps; shared-record overlap likely."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "structural_counter_driver_supply_relief",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Supply-expansion framing (e.g., extraction tech/refining scaling) is a genuine opposing driver that can weaken the bullish deficit thesis without requiring an EV-demand collapse."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of coverage sits in lower-tier domains; conviction remains mass-driven, yet fragility increases if fresh Tier-A corroboration fades."
 },
 {
 "flag": "demand_side_outlier_cluster_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Scattered negative EV adoption/friction items exist (often single-source). A clustered repeat inside a short window would raise reversal risk."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias if net directional score stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio remains < 0.18 over the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if fresh opposing (demand-weakening) evidence clusters (>=2 independent items within 2h) or if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.22."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Treat as reversal risk if a high-trust demand-negative catalyst appears (Tier-A and/or market-structural) and net directional score compresses toward the neutral band (between -20 and +20)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Prefer flat posture label if signal becomes mixed (|directional score| < 20) while fragility rises above 65."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 11,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 13,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 13,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 15,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 15,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 17,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 18,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
 "No trend_physics v2 fields were provided in the gated payload; momentum/recency were approximated using timestamp recency proxies, temporal_profile hints, and velocity_hint.",
 "Opposing evidence is present mainly as scattered EV-demand friction / adoption outliers and supply-expansion narratives; not enough to neutralise the current bullish directional mass.",
 "State change set to 'unchanged' because no reliable prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was provided in inputs."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}