Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: structural_counter_driver_supply_relief
- generated_at: 2026-04-18T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-01 |
Net narrative flow implies higher lithium futures pressure over the next 24h, led by EV adoption/demand optimism and repeated lithium supply-deficit framing. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
46 |
| lithium |
B-LI-02 |
Supply-side relief narratives (extraction technology breakthroughs / refining & offtake scaling) can cap lithium futures upside or create a fast sentiment rollback within 24h. |
38 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
46 |
| lithium |
B-LI-03 |
Short-horizon (next 6h) lithium futures sentiment remains positively biased, but is vulnerable to demand-side downside headlines (EV adoption friction / charging utilisation / sales slowdown pockets). |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_6B_lithium_2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Net narrative flow implies higher lithium futures pressure over the next 24h, led by EV adoption/demand optimism and repeated lithium supply-deficit framing.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / product-launch + manufacturing-expansion cadence (demand-side pull-through)",
"Repeated deficit/constraint framing in lithium supply chain narratives",
"Broad multi-source propagation across the last ~48h with continued fresh updates into the last few hours"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-02",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side relief narratives (extraction technology breakthroughs / refining & offtake scaling) can cap lithium futures upside or create a fast sentiment rollback within 24h.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Direct lithium extraction (DLE) / process innovation narratives (potential future supply expansion)",
"Scaling/industrialisation stories in refining and cathode supply chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-01",
"B-LI-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 41,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-03",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Short-horizon (next 6h) lithium futures sentiment remains positively biased, but is vulnerable to demand-side downside headlines (EV adoption friction / charging utilisation / sales slowdown pockets).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Late-cycle fresh updates maintaining positive net pressure",
"Demand-side signals remain dominant in breadth, even with scattered negative outliers"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-01",
"B-LI-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 45,
"B": 6,
"C": 21,
"D": 379,
"U": 0,
"notes": "Counts are an aggregate across admitted trend bundles and may double-count shared records reused across multiple trends."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_24h_est": 290,
"mid_24_72h_est": 160,
"stale_gt72h_est": 0,
"notes": "Estimated from per-trend evidence_recency_proxy windows and newest/oldest timestamps; shared-record overlap likely."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "structural_counter_driver_supply_relief",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Supply-expansion framing (e.g., extraction tech/refining scaling) is a genuine opposing driver that can weaken the bullish deficit thesis without requiring an EV-demand collapse."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of coverage sits in lower-tier domains; conviction remains mass-driven, yet fragility increases if fresh Tier-A corroboration fades."
},
{
"flag": "demand_side_outlier_cluster_risk",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Scattered negative EV adoption/friction items exist (often single-source). A clustered repeat inside a short window would raise reversal risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias if net directional score stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio remains < 0.18 over the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if fresh opposing (demand-weakening) evidence clusters (>=2 independent items within 2h) or if contradiction_ratio rises above 0.22."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Treat as reversal risk if a high-trust demand-negative catalyst appears (Tier-A and/or market-structural) and net directional score compresses toward the neutral band (between -20 and +20)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Prefer flat posture label if signal becomes mixed (|directional score| < 20) while fragility rises above 65."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 13,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 13,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 15,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 14,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 14,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 15,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 17,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 18,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
"No trend_physics v2 fields were provided in the gated payload; momentum/recency were approximated using timestamp recency proxies, temporal_profile hints, and velocity_hint.",
"Opposing evidence is present mainly as scattered EV-demand friction / adoption outliers and supply-expansion narratives; not enough to neutralise the current bullish directional mass.",
"State change set to 'unchanged' because no reliable prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was provided in inputs."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}