Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: counter_driver_supply_easing_present
- generated_at: 2026-04-18T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-1 | Near-term lithium price pressure remains upward-biased as EV demand and battery supply-chain buildout narratives dominate the last-24h corpus (demand-led pull). | 64 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 52 |
| lithium | B-LI-2 | Upside is capped by supply-side easing narratives (e.g., direct lithium extraction / processing capacity improvements) that can quickly flip sentiment if corroborated, increasing reversal risk. | 41 | down | stable | 24h | false | 52 |
| lithium | B-LI-3 | Short-horizon (6h) flow is more likely to stay bid/firm than to sell off sharply, but with elevated volatility sensitivity to China/trade-policy headlines (policy/market-access risk). | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS-lithium-2026-04-18T12:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-1", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium price pressure remains upward-biased as EV demand and battery supply-chain buildout narratives dominate the last-24h corpus (demand-led pull).", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand", "battery_supply_chain", "ev_policy_subsidies" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-2" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-2", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Upside is capped by supply-side easing narratives (e.g., direct lithium extraction / processing capacity improvements) that can quickly flip sentiment if corroborated, increasing reversal risk.", "probability_pct": 41, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "lithium_mining_supply", "refining_capacity" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-1", "B-LI-3" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-3", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Short-horizon (6h) flow is more likely to stay bid/firm than to sell off sharply, but with elevated volatility sensitivity to China/trade-policy headlines (policy/market-access risk).", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "china_policy", "ev_policy_subsidies", "battery_supply_chain" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-2" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-1", "B-LI-3" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 15, "B": 5, "C": 18, "D": 258, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_24h_est": 210, "mid_24_72h_est": 70, "stale_72h_plus_est": 20 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "counter_driver_supply_easing_present", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Supply-easing/technology narratives (e.g., DLE/refining capacity) act as real counter-pressure against demand-led bullishness; reversal risk rises if fresh corroboration increases." }, { "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Directional mass is broad and fresh, but the admitted corpus shows a high share of lower-tier sources; conviction is therefore more fragile to a small set of high-authority opposing updates." }, { "flag": "policy_headline_volatility", "severity": "medium", "detail": "China/trade/investment-policy items appear in VIP/risk lanes; these can generate fast sentiment swings even without direct lithium pricing data." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=24h) demand/supply-deficit confirmations continue and no additional supply-easing confirmations arrive, maintain bullish bias label." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If policy/trade headlines cluster inside a 2\u20136h window (multiple independent records), expect higher intraday whipsaw risk regardless of direction." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) records support supply expansion/easing and contradiction rises materially, treat as a potential bullish-to-neutral transition." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If directional mass weakens (fresh evidence count drops sharply) and mixed drivers dominate, treat as rangebound/neutral-mixed." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { 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"fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { 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56, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 13, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": -7, "acceleration_score": -11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 12, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 10, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 10, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 11, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 11, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 10, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 10, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 9, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -15, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='lithium'.", "No explicit contradiction objects were provided; counterevidence scoring reflects opposing driver direction (demand-pull vs supply-easing) rather than direct contradiction IDs.", "Prior state unavailable; state_change treated as transition from implicit neutral baseline to current bullish." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }