Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures (GC)
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: GC
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-18 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures lack a clear directional bias because the admitted gold-linked signals are stale versus the 30d window and not reinforced by fresh evidence. 56 mixed fading 24h false 72
gold B-GOLD-002 Physical/trade/logistics disruption narratives around gold can intermittently create upside pressure, but the current evidence base is too old to treat as a live catalyst. 51 up fading 6h false 72
gold B-GOLD-003 ETF/options/positioning chatter (e.g., GLD-linked) is insufficiently sourced in the admitted set and therefore should not be treated as directional confirmation. 60 flat stable 24h false 72

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_6B_2026-04-18T00:00:00Z_gold",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures (GC)",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures lack a clear directional bias because the admitted gold-linked signals are stale versus the 30d window and not reinforced by fresh evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Stale evidence dominance (no meaningful updates inside the last 30d window)",
 "Sparse, non-convergent gold-specific corpus (signals not corroborated recently)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any fresh (<=24h) macro shock to real rates/USD or verified geopolitical escalation with broad coverage"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 15,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Physical/trade/logistics disruption narratives around gold can intermittently create upside pressure, but the current evidence base is too old to treat as a live catalyst.",
 "probability_pct": 51,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Gold market logistics / trade disruption mentions (singletons, March-dated)",
 "Traceability / flow-friction narratives (low corroboration)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Absence of follow-on reporting",
 "Fresh evidence of easing logistics / normalisation of flows"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-003",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "ETF/options/positioning chatter (e.g., GLD-linked) is insufficiently sourced in the admitted set and therefore should not be treated as directional confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Single-record, low-structure 'market dynamics' signals",
 "No diversity/authority reinforcement in the admitted subset"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Multiple independent sources confirming the same positioning impulse within <=72h"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 28,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002",
 "B-GOLD-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Most gold-linked admitted signals are >72h old and also outside the configured 30d window; conviction capped and momentum marked weakening."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Only a small number of directly gold-mapped items were admissible under strict market mapping; limited cross-confirmation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional interpretation is vulnerable to rapid flips if fresh macro/geopolitical inputs arrive because current state is built on stale/low-density evidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "future_timestamp_detected_ignored",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "At least one non-gold risk anomaly carried a timestamp later than the snapshot time and was not used for recency-weighting."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance unless >=3 independent gold-relevant records appear within <=24h that align directionally (up or down)."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if fresh (<=6h) macro real-rates/USD shocks or verified geopolitical escalation are detected with multi-source coverage."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch label only if fresh (<=24h) risk-off escalation signals coincide with corroborated physical market tightness/flow disruption."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Consider a short-bias watch label only if fresh (<=24h) evidence shows sustained real-rate upside / USD strengthening with broad confirmation."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch if a fresh opposing cluster (<=6h) emerges after a directional shift, pushing contradiction materially higher."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'gold' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "Strict market alias mapping admitted only gold-linked VIP items (gold/GLD/logistics). Broad geopolitical trends were treated as unmapped (not force-mapped).",
 "All admitted gold-linked items were dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 and are outside the configured 30d time_window ending 2026-04-18T00:00:00Z; stale suppression applied.",
 "A future-dated non-gold risk anomaly timestamp (later than snapshot) was detected and ignored for recency logic."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}