Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_trade_policy (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-18 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-1 |
Copper futures (HG) have an upside bias over the next 6h driven by a supply-tightness framing (producer/regulatory disruption risk) alongside resilient infrastructure/electrification demand narratives. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
42 |
| copper |
B-copper-2 |
Over the next 24h, copper remains net-bullish, but headline-driven volatility is elevated; sharp pullbacks are plausible even if the dominant bias stays higher. |
66 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260418T070000Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 75,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures (HG) have an upside bias over the next 6h driven by a supply-tightness framing (producer/regulatory disruption risk) alongside resilient infrastructure/electrification demand narratives.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Supply-risk / regulatory constraint narratives around major copper producers (e.g., Chile/LatAm operational-regulatory constraints)",
"Industrial metals tightness / imbalance framing (supply-demand imbalance theme)",
"Trade-policy headline flow increasing the odds of supply-chain tightening (supports risk-premium)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"China activity softness proxies (e.g., steel-output decline narratives) implying demand drag risk",
"Policy whipsaw risk around clean-energy/renewables funding cadence (can dent near-term copper demand expectations)",
"Trade escalation could flip from risk-premium to growth-hit (demand destruction channel)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, copper remains net-bullish, but headline-driven volatility is elevated; sharp pullbacks are plausible even if the dominant bias stays higher.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Broad, multi-source reinforcement of electrification/infrastructure themes supporting copper intensity",
"Ongoing supply-chain/security framing (supports a persistent risk premium)",
"Freshness dominance in the last ~6\u201324h window (recent reinforcement beats stale narratives)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any fresh, high-authority China macro downside surprise could quickly reduce the demand narrative mass",
"Sudden de-escalation in trade policy pressure could compress risk premium",
"Confirmation risk: several \u201cpolicy\u201d and \u201cmacro\u201d negatives appear as thin/single-source items and could be revised/invalidated"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 75,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-1",
"B-copper-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 48,
"B": 6,
"C": 1,
"D": 89,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_signals_0_6h": 3,
"fresh_signals_6_24h": 2,
"stale_signals_gt_24h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_trade_policy",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Trade-policy narratives are active and can quickly pivot from supply-chain risk premium (bullish) to growth-hit (bearish)."
},
{
"flag": "china_macro_sensitivity",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "China activity proxies can invalidate demand assumptions quickly; watch for fresh high-authority downside macro prints."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_negative_items_present",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Some negative-policy/risk items appear thin (single-source/echo-risk); treat as volatility catalysts rather than decisive counterevidence unless corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and fresh evidence remains demand/supply-tightness supportive."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if fresh (<=2h) opposing signals arrive from 2+ independent sources or a single hard official/structural invalidator."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Expect intraday swings when trade-policy and China-macro headlines cluster; volatility can rise even without a thesis flip."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-17T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 37,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 35,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 34,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 15,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 4,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope fixed to single_market=copper (explicit target_market_code).",
"Counterevidence is present mainly as macro/policy sensitivity rather than direct, multi-source bearish copper-specific signals.",
"Prior state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change left as unchanged to avoid assuming a transition."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}